IPS-English POLITICS-MEXICO: Is the Left About to Implode? Date: Mon, 11 Feb 2008 15:14:31 -0800 Diego Cevallos MEXICO CITY, Feb 11 (IPS) - In less than two years, the leftwing Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) has swung from its best electoral showing in history to a drastic fall in its support, while internal conflicts threaten to split it apart. Analysts concur that the PRD, the main opposition force, could implode. This has become a serious possibility since campaigning started in late January in preparation for the Mar. 16 internal elections to renew the party leadership. The leading candidates for party president are Jesús Ortega and Alejandro Encinas. The chief difference between them is their attitude towards former PRD presidential candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador, from whom Ortega has somewhat distanced himself, while Encinas is a loyal supporter. Ortega, who has social democratic leanings, wants to build a modern PRD, willing to enter into dialogue and that puts forth clear, feasible alternative policies. Encinas, by contrast, wants the party to maintain a hardline leftwing stance. They both acknowledge that the party is in deep crisis because of internal dissension over opposing positions. After alleging that he lost the July 2006 elections due to fraud, which the justice authorities have denied, López Obrador refused to recognise the conservative Felipe Calderón as rightful president, and support for the PRD has since dropped sharply. The private IPSOS-BIMSA polling firm says that less than 20 percent of respondents hold a good opinion of the PRD, although it lost the 2006 elections by just half a percentage point to Calderón's National Action Party (PAN). ”Mexico needs a viable political alternative on the left, but in recent months the PRD has squandered its political capital by taking high-risk political positions and indulging in internal conflict, thus depriving a sector of the population of this option,” political scientist Lucio Contreras of the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) told IPS. If the PRD does not improve its image and offer ”something more than threats and the blocking of any kind of political agreement” by the July 2009 legislative elections, it is in for a calamitous defeat, Contreras predicted. However, the left has managed to reach agreement with its rivals, not without difficulty, to approve electoral reforms and the appointment of election officials, as well as tax and budget laws. The PRD was created by a faction that split off in the late 1980s from the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), which governed Mexico from 1929 to 2000, and opposition leftwing and social democratic parties. Today, at the peak of its power, the PRD governs six of Mexico's 32 states, including the capital district. It is the second largest party in the lower house of parliament, with 127 seats out of 500, and the third strongest in the Senate, with 26 seats out of 128. But its support has fallen steadily in local elections since the 2006 presidential poll. Most analysts believe this is because of its attitude towards Calderón. López Obrador, who calls the president a ”pelele” (puppet), leads a sector of the PRD which refuses to cooperate in any way with the government, although the former candidate says he respects those in his party who take a different stance. However, the former Mexico City mayor (2001-2005) calls fellow party members ”traitors” if they develop contacts with the authorities or consider executive branch proposals. ”Those of us who think differently have had enough of being called ‘traitors' and of behaviour that implies there is only one valid position,” said Ortega. Encinas, who has López Obrador's support in the internal PRD elections, has promised to work for the unity of the party and, at the same time, to back the parallel social movement that the former mayor has developed in recent months. This movement is the National Democratic Convention (CND), intended to act as a social counterbalance to the ”illegitimate” Calderón administration, according to its statements. The CND, made up of social organisations and diverse leftwing forces, designated López Obrador as the ”legitimate president” in November 2006. Some analysts speculate that if Encinas fails to win the PRD presidency, López Obrador and his followers will form a separate party. The divisions on the left are hindering part of the country's institutional functioning, because the parliamentary PRD group, in spite of its numerical strength, does not always act as a united body. ”The ragged and squabbling left is keeping the country's decisions in suspense,” wrote Roberto Zamarripia, a columnist for the newspaper Reforma. ”The election of the PRD president has stalled decisions like the appointment of the new president of the Federal Electoral Institute, and the debate on energy industry reform and judicial reform,” Zamarripia said. UNAM political scientist Arnaldo Córdova, who writes for the newspaper La Jornada, says Mexico's ”real left” is ”threadbare, evil-smelling, foul-mouthed, provocative, sometimes violent, uneducated, bereft of ethical values, opportunistic, corrupt, sometimes treacherous, incapable of making deals, lacking a clear programme, and without any real alternatives to offer.” The organising committee for the 10th Congress of the PRD, held in 2007, recognised that the party lacks ”institutionality” and a culture of democracy, and that internecine strife and ”pragmatism” prevail. ”Outwardly, the crisis in the party is reflected in its loss of moral authority and credibility in our society,” their document says. ***** + MEXICO: National Democratic Convention Faces Uncertain Future - 2006 (http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=34873) + Partido de la Revolución Democrática, PRD - in Spanish (http://www.prd.org.mx) (END/IPS/LA IP CV/TRASP-VD-SW/DC/MJ/08) = 02111924 ORP008 NNNN