[progchat_action] Venezuela - Datanalisis Prez admits his own poll not valid
 
Date: Sat, 1 Dec 2007 11:39:24 -0600 (CST)

Venezuela: Datanalisis Pollster Dismisses the Firm's Own Poll
Statement Implies that Datanalisis Poll is Not Valid

Common Dreams
 November 30, 2007

Washington, DC - November 30 - In an interview made available Wednesday,
November 28, the head of a widely-cited polling firm contradicted his firm's
own findings that had suggested a majority of likely voters would vote
against proposed constitutional changes favored by Venezuelan President Hugo
Chavez.

In an interview with Reuters posted online yesterday, [See below] Luis
Vicente Leon, a pollster for Datanalisis stated, "The most probable
[projection] is that there will be no surprise and Chavez will win 60
percent against 40 percent."

Datanalisis' prior survey has been the most widely cited poll in the
international media in the run-up to Sunday's referendum. The poll,
conducted on behalf of private businesses, and reported in the media on
November 24, reported that "about 49 percent of likely voters oppose the
reforms while 39 percent favor."

Vicente Leon's statements directly contradict the results of the poll. If
the 60/40 projection is correct, CEPR calculated that the odds of obtaining
the prior poll result - i.e. 49 percent of respondents saying no -- would be
one in two billion trillion.

"As a statistical matter, Mr. Vicente Leon's remarks can be considered an
admission that his previous poll was not valid," said CEPR Co-Director Mark
Weisbrot.

CEPR had warned just yesterday that dubious or fake polls might be used to
influence public perceptions during the election.

http://www.commondreams.org/news2007/1130-12.htm

**** Chavez's reforms not as popular as the president: Leon

Reuters Wed Nov 28, 2007 12:05pm EST

Chavez has not managed to validate his constitutional reforms with a large
majority, which has happened in elections that are votes for him. It is
obvious that the popularity of the president, above 60 percent, is not at
risk here. But the proposal is not so popular as elements of the Chavez camp
are rejecting it and are concerned about it.

It is difficult to make an electoral projections because the numbers of
abstentions and undecided voters are high, the perfect ground for a
surprise. The most probable is that there will be no surprise and Chavez
will win 60 percent against 40 percent, but technically there is a
possibility that it could happen, which is something that has not existed
before.

The key abstentions will be not from the opposition, but from the Chavistas
who are not part of the hard-core nucleus, who support Chavez, but who don't
like the proposals. But they are not defined yet. They believe it would be
betrayal, they believe that voting "No" is voting for the opposition or that
voting "No" will allow the opposition to take advantage to try to remove
Chavez from power. So in this scenario, they prefer to abstain.

While Chavez has 62 percent popularity, the reforms have 34.9 percent. So it
is more important that Chavez use his strength and sell Chavez supporters
the idea that they are voting for him, for his continuation, rather than for
the reforms themselves. And we see that in the propaganda, the campaign is
"Yes means Chavez" or "Continue on with Chavez".

http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersEdge/idUSDIS85641820071128

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