IPS-English VENEZUELA: Chávez Faces Narrow Margin in Referendum
 
Date: Fri, 30 Nov 2007 15:22:03 -0800

 
Humberto Márquez

CARACAS, Nov 30   (IPS)  - For the first time in the numerous democratic
elections held since Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez first took office
in 1998, a national vote is taking place in which his pet project,
a major constitutional reform, does not have overwhelming support.

Nevertheless, pollsters say that the reform of 69 of the 350 articles
of the constitution that was rewritten under Chávez and approved by
popular vote in a 1999 referendum could be ratified by voters on Sunday,
because of the weakness of the opposition and the popularity of the
president.

In promoting the proposed constitutional amendments, Chávez has said
that a ”No” vote in Sunday's referendum would be against him and a
”Yes” vote would be for him.

The proposed constitutional reform would remove presidential term
limits, lengthen the presidential term of office from six to seven
years, limit the Central Bank's autonomy and mandate closer coordination
between the Bank and the executive branch (through the finance and
planning ministries) of policies to promote economic growth and development,
and allow the president to redefine the administrative organisation
of the country. 

In addition, some duties and resources of city and state governments
would be put in the hands of recently created community councils,
aimed at strengthening direct democracy. 

The reforms would also reduce the workday from eight to six hours,
create a social security system for self-employed or informal sector
workers like street vendors or taxi drivers, reduce the voting age
from 18 to 16 and increase from 20 to 30 percent the number of voters'
signatures required to trigger a presidential recall vote. 

The amended constitution would still recognise private property while
expanding and creating other kinds of property regimes, such as state,
mixed, and ”socialised” property, which would include cooperatives.

”There is a certain sensation that the ‘No' vote is in the majority,
but that does not ensure its victory, because the key lies in the
abstention rate which, if it is high, like around 50 percent, will
favour the governing coalition, but if it is low, around 25 percent,
would allow a triumph by the opposition,” Oscar Schémel, head of the
Hinterlaces polling company, told IPS.

According to his firm's latest nationwide poll carried out Nov. 20-24,
51 percent of those interviewed rejected the proposed constitutional
amendments, compared to 38 percent who supported them. 

But among those who said they planned to vote in Sunday's referendum,
46 percent said they would vote ‘No' and 45 percent said they would
vote ‘Yes' -- a technical tie.

Leopoldo López, an opposition leader and mayor of the Chacao district
to the east of Caracas, told IPS that ”we are seeing a close campaign,
but we are confident that if the people who are opposed to the reforms
come out to vote, we can block this project.”

Germán Campos, with the 30.11 Consultores firm, believes, on the
other hand, that ”although the president's popularity may have gone
down somewhat in the past few months, the proportions still fall within
the 60 percent pro-Chávez and 40 percent anti-Chávez range.”

”If voter turnout goes up, that's because his followers have come
out to vote, and it means the ‘Yes' vote will win,” he told IPS.

In the survey conducted by Campos three days ago in Venezuela's 16
most populous states, 38.2 percent of those polled said they would
vote ‘Yes', 26.9 percent said they would vote ‘No', 20.3 percent said
they would not vote, and 14.7 percent said they did not know.

But when the sample was reduced to those who said they would definitely
vote, 55.5 percent said they would vote ‘Yes', 39.9 percent said they
would vote ‘No' and 4.6 percent said they had not decided yet.

One week earlier, the Keller y Asociados firm reported that 45 percent
of those who said they were going to vote would choose the ‘No' ballot,
40 percent would vote ‘Yes' and 15 percent were undecided.

Before the ban on reporting survey results kicked in, Luis Vicente
León, head of the Datanálisis polling firm, said last week that ”It
is impossible to predict which side will win the referendum.”

At that time, he reported that 44.6 percent of Venezuelans rejected
the reforms and 30.8 percent supported them, while of those who said
they would vote for sure, 48.9 percent were against, 39.4 percent
in favour, 9.5 percent did not know, and 2.2 percent did not respond.

Campos said that since Chávez was first elected in 1998, with 56.2
percent of the vote compared to the 39.9 percent taken by his main
rival, the 10 or so elections and referendums held ”have practically
been one single election, with similar results at different points
in time.”

The president won an August 2004 recall referendum by 59 to 41 percent,
and a year ago he was reelected in a landslide victory, with 63 percent
of the vote compared to 37 percent taken by opposition leader Manuel
Rosales, governor of the oil-producing state of Zulia.

Campos said 49.8 percent of respondents in his company's most recent
poll held a positive view of the Chávez administration, compared to
53 percent a year ago. On the other hand, 31.4 percent had a negative
view, down from 37 percent last year.

Meanwhile, 36.2 percent described themselves as Chavistas, 24 percent
as anti-Chavistas, 22 percent as moderates, and 16.8 percent said
they had no affiliation.

A year ago, 42 percent considered themselves Chavistas, 30 percent
anti-Chavistas, 16 percent moderates and 11 percent unaffiliated.

”These numbers indicate that, in relation to the acute polarisation
of the recent past, one sector of society is moving towards the centre,
but not yet to the extent that it would cause a dramatic shift in
a vote like Sunday's,” said Campos.

Schémel, whose firm collects survey and focus group data, said ”the
polarisation is not as sharp as on other occasions, and the ‘Yes'
vote has remained stagnant, not as a result of the opposition's activities
and efforts, but because of a growing climate of disenchantment with
the president.”

”Chavistas increasingly blame the president himself for any shortcomings
by his government, and some segments appear to be growing tired of
his confrontational style. That explains the president's intense personalisation
of this referendum,” said the analyst.

One question mark is to what extent the results of Sunday's referendum
will be influenced by the fact that some of Chávez' former supporters
have come out in favour of the ‘No' vote, including the Podemos party,
which is strong in two of the country's 24 regions, retired general
Raúl Baduel, one of Chávez's long-time friends and colleagues, and
the president's ex-wife Marisabel Rodríguez.

León, for his part, pointed out that ”The capacity for mobilisation
is key in any election, the ‘red machinery' (an allusion to the colour
traditionally worn by Chavistas) holds the levers of power, and the
president does not sit back with his arms crossed during campaigns.”

Chávez's supporters not only hold the government and parliament --
in which the president's allies control all of the seats due to a
boycott of the last legislative elections by the opposition -- but
also govern 22 of the country's 24 regions and 90 percent of its municipalities.

Over the past year, the president has been unifying the various parties
that support him in a single socialist political force, which is capable
of filling any avenue in Caracas with followers from the provinces
in less than 24 hours.

Four of the five members of the national electoral authority are
also considered Chavista by a majority of political analysts and the
press.

One novelty in Venezuela over the last few months is the growing
anti-Chávez movement of students, whose impact will also be gauged
to some extent in Sunday's vote.

Thousands of university students held marches in May and June to
protest the government's refusal to renew the broadcasting licence
of an opposition-aligned private TV station, and since October they
have poured out into the streets of Venezuela's main cities to oppose
the proposed constitutional reforms.

On Thursday, students formed the core of a march by around 100,000
demonstrators campaigning for the ‘No' vote on Bolívar avenue in Caracas,
while the Chavistas prepared to march in the capital Friday.
	
Opposition protesters also planned to take to the streets Friday
in the main cities in the provinces to close the shortest election
campaign -- just one month long -- and the most difficult to predict
in the last decade in Venezuela.



(END/IPS/LA IP/TRASP-SW/HM/DM/07)


 
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