[NYTr] Educating Raul (There's No Educating Bush) Date: Sat, 4 Aug 2007 16:47:34 -0500 (CDT) Via NY Transfer News Collective * All the News that Doesn't Fit [The Guardian and the Economist - two British views on Raul's first year as acting president. -NY Transfer] The Guardian - Aug 3, 2007 http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/ben_whitford/2007/08/a_year_ago_this_week.html Educating RaC:l by Ben Whitford A year ago this week, there was dancing in the streets of Miami as an ailing Fidel Castro temporarily ceded control of Cuba to his brother RaC:l. Rumors of Fidel's imminent death abounded. Analysts anticipated the speedy downfall of the country's communist regime. The White House issued stern warnings about what would and would not be tolerated in the "new Cuba". Almost everyone agreed that the country had reached a watershed, and that a radical shake-up, for better or worse, was inevitable. Twelve months later, the surprising thing is how little has changed. Fidel's health may still be shaky, but he has swapped his uniform for a tracksuit - the well-dressed Cuban retiree's outfit of choice - and appears to be enjoying his new role as newspaper columnist and dictator emeritus. With his brother's blessing, RaC:l has consolidated power with remarkable ease; and under his de facto leadership, Cuba has returned to business as usual. The communist regime may be under new stewardship, but it appears as securely ensconced as ever. But while Cubans have begun to adapt to the new political landscape, the Bush administration is still clinging to its belief that Fidel's death, when it finally comes, will prove the panacea for all that ails Cuba. President Bush was recently caught daydreaming about the day "the good Lord will take Fidel Castro away", saying it would usher in a new and democratic dawn for America's island neighbour. In the meantime, there's little stomach in Washington for any re-evaluation of Cuban-American relations. Recent attempts to loosen the economic embargo were unceremoniously shot down, and - as Barack Obama recently discovered - even mentioning the idea of direct engagement with Havana remains politically risky. A year ago, an isolationist, wait-and-see approach made some sense: pretty much everyone believed that control of Cuba would have to be wrenched out of Castro the Elder's cold, dead hands. Had the comandante died before naming a successor, it would have set the stage for a divisive power struggle for which RaC:l - the most obvious leader-in-waiting - seemingly had neither appetite nor aptitude. The resultant chaos might easily have created a window of opportunity for the US to push for the dismantling of Cuba's one-party system and to begin to broker genuine democratic reform. These days, though, Bush's strategy doesn't seem so smart. By sidelining himself, Fidel has been able to anoint his brother and personally oversee an orderly transition of power. While his eventual death will still shake Cuba, it is unlikely to mean the end for the regime he founded. The question now is less whether Cuba's communist government will continue than what trajectory it will take. RaC:l may lack his brother's charisma and barnstorming oratory, but he is a shrewd, businesslike politician well aware of the need for reform. Significant changes are unlikely while Fidel is alive, but RaC:l has already taken a more conciliatory approach to the US, and appears to be tentatively laying the groundwork for a move towards Chinese-style "free market communism". Political reforms are not high on his agenda, and there will still be plenty for human rights advocates to complain about; but RaC:l appears determined to correct at least some of his brother's excesses and to build a more viable economic system. Washington's reluctance to address Havana's new political reality speaks to the long shadow Fidel Castro still casts over Cuban-American relations - and the enduring influence of Miami's Calle Ocho hardliners, who have built a thriving cottage industry dedicated to demonising the Cuban leader. As long as Fidel has a pulse, any easing of America's stance towards Cuba will be taken as an act of appeasement by Florida's Cuban-American exile community; and few politicians have the cojones to pick that fight, especially with an election on the way. Still, many in Washington are uncomfortable with the largely irrational policies foisted on them by the Cuban-American lobby. There's a good chance that Fidel's death, when it comes, will be taken as a welcome excuse to reformulate America's relationship with her Caribbean neighbour. The anti-Castro hardliners wouldn't like it, but much of their support and influence is derived from the exile community's knee-jerk aversion to Fidel. After his demise, many Cuban-Americans would be more amenable to a normalisation of relations between the two countries. Ironically, when Fidel finally does shuffle off to the great Tropicana Club in the sky, it may spark more sweeping changes in Washington than in Havana. *** The Economist - Aug 2, 2007 http://www.economist.com/world/la/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9597369 Cuba: Conceptual change RaC:l Castro sets out his stall while Fidel hovers in the background A YEAR ago this week, Fidel Castro announced that he required intestinal surgery and that he had temporarily turned over his powers as Cuba's head of state and government to his slightly younger brother, RaC:l. One year on, by all accounts, Fidel Castro continues to recover from complications that almost killed him. But it is slowly dawning on Cubans that change and the post-Fidel era have begun. To most outward appearances, everything in the communist island remains the same. Most of the observable differences are cosmetic. There are fewer government-organised mass rallies. Television schedules are no longer re-arranged around Fidel's lengthy musings and eccentric schedule. RaC:l likes to keep normal office hours. The clearest sign so far that deeper change is afoot came on July 26th, the official anniversary of the start of the revolution. Fidel would use the occasion to expatiate on the statistics of Cuban economic triumphs, or to excoriate the enemy across the water in the United States. By contrast, RaC:l Castro's hour-long speech to a crowd of 100,000 in Camaguey contained some unusually sharp criticism of Cuba's own shortcomings. The standard wage of around $15 a month was bclearly insufficient to satisfy all needs,b he said, stating the previously unutterable obvious. This was the main cause of bsocial indisciplineb (ie, the black market, which Fidel has tended to blame on personal greed). bStructural and conceptual changes will have to be introducedb to raise productivity, RaC:l went on. By way of example, he singled out as babsurdb the centralised system for producing milk. He also called for more foreign investment, and invited America's next president to btalk in a civilised mannerb to Cuba. bRaC:l is raising new expectations,b says Oscar Espinosa Chepe, a dissident economist. Can he satisfy them? As long as Fidel lives, reformers within the leadership will have to be cautious. Hardliners will put up less resistance against economic reform than against any loosening of one-party control. Still, there is no longer much talk of the elder Mr Castro returning to power. Apart from seeing the occasional visitor, Fidel's only public activity is publishing articles in the official newspaper, Granma. After four articles about the doings of Cuba's athletes at the Pan-American Games, his column this week returned to politics. It gave warning that bno one should entertain the slightest illusionb that the United States will negotiate with Cuba and noted that he is consulted on bevery important decisionb. Maybe, but it now looks as if RaC:l, not Fidel, is the man who makes them. * ================================================================= .NY Transfer News Collective * A Service of Blythe Systems . Since 1985 - Information for the Rest of Us . .339 Lafayette St., New York, NY 10012 http://www.blythe.org . List Archives: https://blythe-systems.com/pipermail/nytr/ . Subscribe: https://blythe-systems.com/mailman/listinfo/nytr =================================================================