IPS-English TRINIDAD: Divided Opposition Makes Last Pitch Before Polls Date: Fri, 02 Nov 2007 14:15:32 -0800 Peter Ischyrion PORT OF SPAIN, Nov 2 (IPS) - As an economist and former Central Bank governor, Winston Dookeran is well aware of the numbers game. On Monday, Nov. 5, he is hoping that the numbers fall within his own predictions and give him the chance to lead this oil-rich twin island republic over the next five years. His Congress of the People (COP) party has been preaching a ”new politics” for Trinidad and Tobago, where race rather than specific issues has usually determined the outcome of general elections. ”The country moved for change. The PNM (People's National Movement) is employing the politics of fear, the UNCA (United National Congress Alliance) the politics of falsehood. We are trying to engage the society in the politics of change,” said Dookeran, 64. Opinion polls do not provide much hope for his candidacy, although they do suggest that a united opposition could have easily removed the Patrick Manning administration from office. Manning, 61, is one of the longest serving politicians in the country. This is his 10th general election. He has brushed aside the latest polls, telling supporters to have faith in the PNM, which was formed 51 years ago and has been in control of the government for all but 11 years. Dookeran's COP and the main opposition United National Congress (UNC), which has joined with some minor opposition groupings in the form of the UNCA, seem determined to keep to their separate agendas even though they publicly acknowledge that the split benefits the incumbent PNM. The latest opinion poll by the U.S.-based North American Caribbean Teachers Association (NACTA) Friday indicates that the PNM will win at least 26 of the 41 seats in Trinidad's lower house. The main campaign issue has been crime, with 38 murders last month prompting one newspaper to publish a red banner headline declaring it: ”Red October”. The government has said that its measures to reduce crime are working, and points to United Nations reports that indicate that the drug trade in the wider Caribbean is fuelling the crime wave. Opposition parties insist that the measures are clearly not working, and accuse the PNM of corruption and involvement with criminal elements. Pollsters have also acknowledged that division among the opposition is preventing a ”defeat (for the PNM) similar to the blowout of 1986”, when the party lost its hold on government for the first time after 30 continuous years in office. In 1986, it took a coalition of opposition parties under the umbrella of the National Alliance for Reconstruction to sweep aside the PNM by a 33-3 margin. One of the architects of that stunning victory, Basdeo Panday, 72, is now one of the co-leaders of the UNCA. Panday, who was prime minister of this Caribbean state from 1995-2001, said that internal polls done by the party show it needs at least three seats in the marginal constituencies to win the elections and he is appealing to supporters not to ”waste their votes” by lending support to Dookeran. ”The UNCA has been gaining momentum and with support for the COP slipping away, the UNCA has become a serious contender for power against the PNM,” said NACTA, which correctly predicted the outcome of the 1995 and 2001 general elections here. The COP is undeterred, placing full page advertisements in the local media reminding voters that the ”UNC cannot win” and that ”Dookeran is the man” based on the findings of other opinion polls, including those conducted by pollsters from the neighbouring island of Barbados. The history of voting in Trinidad and Tobago has been predominantly along racial lines, with Afro-Trinidadian voters lending support to the PNM while Indo-Trinidadians have thrown their weight behind the Indo-based opposition parties. But a new factor has emerged in the campaign this year, with both the UNCA and the COP fighting for dominance among the Hindu community, particularly after Sat Maharaj, the general secretary of the Sanatan Dharma Maha Sabha, the largest Hindu organisation here, publicly called on Hindus to support the COP. Like Dookeran, Panday is a Hindu and he has accused the SDMS of using religion to further the political aspirations of Maharaj and another SDMS executive member, Devon Maharaj, who is a COP candidate. President of the Hindu Council of the Caribbean, Deosaran Bisnath, has also weighed in, urging devotees to ”reject those attempting to coerce Hindus into voting for any political party favoured by one or more Hindu organisations. ”Hindus are not mindless flocks of sheep to be shepherded and chaperoned into reservations managed by the sponsors and friends of political parties,” he said in a statement. According to the Elections and Boundaries Commission (EBC), nearly a million people are eligible to cast ballots for the next government from among the 130 candidates, who include 33 women and five independents. Acting Chief Elections Officer Versil Charles-Wrigh told IPS that the EBC is satisfied that all systems have been put in place to ensure a ”smooth process” on Monday even as she acknowledged ”there will always be bumps”. She said that the EBC has no quarrel with the presence of the 27-member Caribbean Community (CARICOM) Observer Mission monitoring the polls. The CARICOM team, headed by prominent Caribbean jurist and lawyer Sir Richard Cheltenham, is the only observer team here, although some prominent names, such as U.S. civil rights activist Rev. Jesse Jackson, are also expected here this weekend as the campaign winds down for the Nov. 5 poll. The police have warned that they will act swiftly to deal with acts of political violence, but that assurance did not stop gunmen from killing UNCA activist Sean Douglas in late October. COP candidate David Sinclair remains hospitalised after a severe beating from unidentified people. Dookeran also said that he was threatened with kidnapping while on a walkabout in Sinclair's constituency. Manning has blamed the violence on a ”blood feud” between the two opposition parties, adding that the security forces have been given ”appropriate” instructions to deal with any form of violence during the elections. ***** + POLITICS-TRINIDAD: The Women Are at the Gates (http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=39694) + JAMAICA: First Woman PM Edged Out (http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=39222) (END/IPS/CA/IP/HD/CR/PR/KS/07) = 11030129 ORP004 NNNN