[NYTr] VIO Venezuela Daily News Roundupm- REFERENDUM - Dec 3, 2007
 
Date: Mon, 3 Dec 2007 23:47:17 -0600 (CST)

Via NY Transfer News Collective  *  All the News that Doesn't Fit
 
[We're distributing the entire VIO Referndum news summary, which is a
good representative sample of press coverage of the defeat by a tiny
margin of reforms/changes to the Venezuelan Constitution mostly by the
mainstream press.  Particularly amusing is #22 from The Wall Street
Journal predicting an "electoral coup" the day before the election --
which pro-Chavez forces lost by a hair.  What will they say now, we
wonder? Some of the capitalist mainstream press used adjectives such
as "major setback," "stinging defeat" and "stunning" to describe the
close election and extremely tiny rejection of the Constitutional
changes. Hardly that. As usual, the capitalist press misses the
point. But that's fine... there's no reason to help them out by
enlightening them. -NY Transfer]

excerpted from Venezuela Information Office (VIO)
http://www.rethinkvenezuela.com

VIO Venezuela Daily News Roundup - December 3, 2007

[Constitutional reforms were struck down by voters in Venezuela by a
very small margin in yesterday's national referendum.  The 'No' vote
won by less than one and a half percent.  Figures released by the
National Electoral Council show that about 51% of voters said 'No' to
the proposed reforms, while 49% said 'Yes.'  Voter turnout in the
referendum -- Venezuela's eleventh electoral process under Chavez --
was 55%.  See full results in Spanish here:
http://www.cne.gov.ve/noticiaDetallada.php?id=4347 

Voting took more time than expected, as long lines at the polls kept
some stations open until late into the evening.  However, the process
was orderly and peaceful on the whole.  The Director of the National
Electoral Council, Tibisay Lucena, called this electoral process "the
calmest we've had in the last 10 years."  The BBC reports that
President Chavez publicly accepted the referendum just moments after
they were announced, thanking voters for exercising their democratic
duty and encouraging them "to continue debating these issues in order
to achieve the greatest social inclusion and social equality."  Chavez
also emphasized to need to "put our trust in our institutions."  The AP
notes that about 100 electoral observers were present, representing 39
countries and organizations including the NAACP.

Time Magazine reports today that "The result, and Chavez's graceful
acceptance of it, may well have set not only Venezuela, a key U.S. oil
supplier, but all of Latin America on a far surer path to democracy in
the 21st century."  Moreover, electoral victories for Chavez in 1998,
2000, 2006, and 2004 "were all recognized by credible international
observers; and that conferred on him a democratic legitimacy that
helped blunt accusations by his enemies, especially the U.S., that he
was a would-be dictator in the mold of Fidel Castro."

Other U.S. sources today report on the 'No' vote in the referendum,
evidence of the proper functioning of the democratic process in
Venezuela.  Most of those same sources had written off the national
referendum as steering the country toward "dictatorship" or an
"electoral coup" in the lead-up to the vote.  Editorials all major
newspapers made this claim, which mirrored the anti-Chavez stance of
the Bush administration, as evidenced by a piece by former defense
minister Donald Rumsfeld in the Washington Post yesterday.  Rumsfeld
advocates free trade and invokes Cold War rhetoric -- NATO is called
"the great bulwark against communist expansion" -- to vilify President
Chavez as an "aspiring dictator."  The Washington Post also reported
Sunday that U.S. government funding went to anti-Chavez student groups
through agencies such as USAID, which has lent financial support to
opposition groups in the past. Though Chavez has been criticized for
calling opposition students spoiled rich kids, the Post reported that
Venezuelan students opposed to Chavez -- who is known as a pro-poor
leader -- "hail from... elite universities." -VIO]

****************
1)"Venezuelans reject constitutional change, Chavez accepts" AFP
2)"ChC!vez loses bid to extend power" AP
3)"Chavez defeat: Reaction in quotes" BBC News
4)"Chavez Tastes Defeat Over Reforms" Time
5)"Venezuela Hands Narrow Defeat to ChC!vez Plan" New York Times
6)"Venezuelans Deny ChC!vez Additional Authority" Washington Post
7)"Voters reject Chavez's reform bid" Los Angeles Times
8)"Venezuelans Reject Chavez's Plans for Constitution" Bloomberg
9)"Chavez defeated over reform vote" BBC News
10)"Bush administration pleased with ChC!vez defeat" Miami Herald
11)"ChC!vez Suffers Major Setback" Wall Street Journal
12)"Voters reject Chavez's bid for new powers" Financial Times
13)"Venezuelan Constitutional Reform Vote Concludes Peacefully"
Venezuelanalysis
14)"Chavez Backers Rally for Charter Changes" AP
15)"Chavez Bluster Surges Ahead of Referendum" Washington Post
16)"Students Become Potent Adversary To ChC!vez Vision" Washington Post
17)"The Smart Way to Beat Tyrants Like ChC!vez" Washington Post
18)"ChC!vez power play in voters' hands" Miami Herald
19)"As world watches Venezuela, other leaders make moves" Miami Herald
20)"Venezuela's president and public enemy No. 1" Los Angeles Times
21)"Chavez Government Touts Referendum Monitoring by U.S. Groups"
Bloomberg 
22)"ChC!vez's Electoral Coup" Wall Street Journal
23)"Poor disillusioned as ChC!vez pushes change" Financial Times

****************

1)
Venezuelans reject constitutional change, Chavez accepts
Agence France Presse
November 3, 2007
http://au.news.yahoo.com/071203/19/1556d.html

CARACAS (AFP) - Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez acknowledged Monday
his first-ever defeat at the polls after voters rejected reforms in a
weekend referendum that would have strengthened his grip on power and
turned his oil-rich country into a socialist state.

"Don't feel sad," a chastened-looking Chavez told his supporters via a
media conference. He stressed that he had lost by only a "minimal"
margin and was encouraged by the support he did get.

The National Electoral Council said "no" votes against the reforms had
outweighed "yes" votes by a very narrow 51 to 49 percent. More than 44
percent of registered voters did not show up to the polls.

"I tell you from the heart: for a few hours I debated with myself, in a
dilemma," Chavez said. "I've now left the dilemma behind and I'm calm.
I hope the Venezuelans are as well."

He added: "Now, Venezuelans, let's put our trust in our institutions."

Opposition members and sympathizers immediately celebrated their
victory, setting off fireworks in Caracas and filling the streets with
cheers and whistles.

Chavez supporters, in contrast, looked despondent in their red campaign
colors, their "yes" flags and banners lowered.

It was the first time since Chavez came to power in 1999 that he has
lost at the polls. In all his elections, the charismatic leftwing
firebrand triumphed with comfortable leads.

During his campaigning for the referendum, the president had labeled as
"traitors" those swelling the ranks of the opposition -- including an
unprecedented number of the country's poor, who, while still expressing
affection for him, balked at endorsing his reforms.

Chavez, a firebrand critic of the United States with ties to Iran and
Cuba, had been counting on the referendum to continue his rule beyond
January 2013, when he must step down under the current constitutional
two-term limit.

The 53-year-old former paratrooper had said he wanted the constitution
overhauled so he could seek re-election "until 2050" -- when he would
be 95.

He had also wanted to gain even tighter control over the country by
putting more of the military under his command, permitting media
censorship in times of emergency and scrapping the central bank's
autonomy.

But street protests started by university students put paid to those
ambitions, growing into the grassroots opposition movement that
eventually vanquished him at the polls.

His exhortations that a "no" vote would be a vote for US President
George W. Bush and US "imperialism" failed to carry the day in his
favor.

There was a disturbing few hours after the vote, however, during which
the government gave no results whatsoever and Chavez pondered what to
do.

With the opposition clamoring for the release of figures -- and
soldiers moving in to block entry to the National Electoral Council
building -- a media conference was finally held in the early hours of
Monday in which NEC chief Tibisay Lucena announced the defeat of the
reforms.

Chavez mocked the opposition in his concession speech, saying that
their concerns that he might refuse to accept the result were clearly
misplaced.

"Now the tensions have dropped I hope they will see things more
calmly," he said.

Fears remained of street violence in the wake of the result, however.

Former defense minister Raul Baduel, who had referred to the reform
proposal as a concealed coup attempt, urged supporters to remain
vigilant in months ahead.

"We need to remain conscious of the possibility that the president
could attempt to reach the same results through the legislative
process," Baduel said.

A historian, Margarita Lopez Maya, told AFP that the result was "a
personal rout for the president" but overall good for the country.

"Chavez will survive, but will be forced to rethink the timing of his
project and the ways he might be able to persuade the population," she
said.

Venezuela's constitution prevents Chavez from re-presenting his
constitutional reform under the current congress -- though he could
conceivably appoint a constituent assembly to draft an entirely new
basic law for adoption.

****************

2)
ChC!vez loses bid to extend power
By Ian James
The Associated Press
November 3, 2007
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2004049171_venezuela03.html

A man touches a painting of President Hugo Chavez in Caracas on Sunday,
when voters faced a referendum on major changes to Venezuela's
constitution.

CARACAS, Venezuela ? President Hugo ChC!vez suffered a stinging defeat
today in a vote on constitutional changes that would have let him run
for re-election indefinitely and solidify his bid to transform this
major U.S. oil provider into a socialist state.

Voters Sunday rejected the sweeping measures by a vote of 51 percent to
49 percent, said Tibisay Lucena, chief of the National Electoral
Council, with voter turnout just 56 percent.

She said that with 88 percent of the votes counted, the trend was
irreversible.

Opposition supporters shouted with joy as Lucena announced the results
on national television early today, their first victory against ChC!vez
after nine years of electoral defeats. Some broke down in tears. Others
began chanting: "And now he's going away!"

ChC!vez immediately went on national television and conceded before a
roomful of government allies and supporters. "I thank you and I
congratulate you," ChC!vez said calmly, directing his comments to his
foes.

"Don't feel sad," he urged his supporters, saying there were
"microscopic differences" between the "yes" and "no" options in a
referendum that ChC!vez's opponents feared could have meant a plunge
toward dictatorship.

ChC!vez said his respect for the outcome should vindicate his standing
as a democrat.

"From this moment on, let's be calm," he declared. "There is no
dictatorship here."

Some analysts predicted the loss would embolden ChC!vez's domestic
opponents. What seems certain is that the defeat will energize the
opposition, especially student groups that took to the street to oppose
the changes.

The vote represents the first electoral setback for ChC!vez, 53, a
former lieutenant colonel who won the presidency in a 1998 landslide
and had trounced his opponents in one referendum and presidential
election after another.

Political analysts had said last week that the populist leader had lost
standing this year after implementing unpopular policies, such as
canceling a television station's broadcast license and displaying
erratic behavior in verbal spats with foreign leaders.

ChC!vez had campaigned furiously in recent days after polls showed that
Venezuelans would reject the changes. But he faced an eclectic and
widespread opposition that included university students, Roman Catholic
leaders and human-rights groups.

Particularly damaging to the government was the defection of several
longtime allies, including the former defense minister, Raul Baduel,
and the head of an influential, pro-ChC!vez party, Ismael Garcia.

"Today I think people are voting for democracy, voting for balance, for
a process of checks and balances," said Oscar Arnal, an
international-studies professor who voted no.

The changes would have created new forms of communal property, let
ChC!vez handpick local leaders under a redrawn political map, permit
civil liberties to be suspended under extended states of emergency and
allow ChC!vez to seek re-election indefinitely.

Now, ChC!vez will be barred from running again in 2012.

Other changes would have shortened the workday from eight hours to six,
created a social-security fund for informal laborers and promoted
communal councils where residents decide how to spend government funds.

The changes also would have granted ChC!vez control over the Central
Bank and extended presidential terms from six to seven years.

About 100 electoral observers from 39 countries in Latin America,
Europe and the United States were on hand, the electoral council said. 

****************

3)
Chavez defeat: Reaction in quotes
BBC News
November 3, 2007
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7124376.stm

HUGO CHAVEZ

To those who voted against my proposal, I thank them and congratulate
them... I ask all of you to go home, know how to handle your victory.
You won it. I wouldn't have wanted that Pyrrhic victory...

I say to the workers of Venezuela, to men and women, including those
who did not vote for the reforms, that the social proposal contained
here is the most advanced in the world and one for which we will
continue to work.

We make the greatest effort... to continue debating these issues in
order to achieve the greatest social inclusion and social equality.

LEOPOLDO LOPEZ, OPPOSITION MAYOR OF CARACAS' CHACAO MUNICIPALITY

We are all very happy because the results today are not the results of
a political party winning over another, it's democracy winning over an
authoritarian project.

Venezuela won today, democracy won today, and I am sure that this
victory for the Venezuelan people will have a very important impact in
the rest of Latin America.

OLIVIA GOUMBRI, GOVERNMENT-FUNDED VENEZUELA INFORMATION OFFICE

It shows the level of democratic participation in Venezuela, the
ability of the Venezuelan people to vote for and against the reforms,
to be calm and accept the result.

So I think it's a really interesting take on what's going on in
Venezuela in the sense that although the majority of the population
voted for Chavez last year, they also have the ability to make up their
own minds.

The fact that we see that an effort he proposed has not gone through, I
think really is a testament to the amount of democratic processes that
are going on in this country.

GEN RAUL BADUEL, FORMER DEFENCE MINISTER AND CHAVEZ ALLY

We have to recognise that a portion of Venezuelan society has supported
the president, but also today it's been shown that dissent has its
place in unity - that is what we should now accept in our country:
unity in diversity...

The president wanted to force Venezuelans to accept a project that was
his. He presented it to the public, he began the conversation and
wanted to impose his will on us, manipulating people's feelings. The
proposals for change did not come from the public, as they should
have... 

****************

4)
Chavez Tastes Defeat Over Reforms
By Tim Padgett
Time Magazine
December 3, 2007
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1690082,00.html

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez's left-wing, oil-fueled revolution
usually carries itself like a swaggering, cocksure juggernaut. So it
was a sign that things perhaps weren't looking good for the fiery,
anti-U.S. leader Sunday night when he didn't appear on the balcony of
Miraflores, the Caracas presidential palace, pumping his fists and
crowing confidently about victory. Venezuela's polls had closed in a
national referendum on a raft of constitutional reforms that would have
profoundly tightened his hold on political power in Venezuela ?
including an amendment to eliminate presidential term limits (which
currently last six years). Instead, Chavez's Vice President, Jorge
Rodriguez, appeared as the night wore on and told reporters, "We will
respect the result, whatever it is."

And, to the astonishment of his opponents, Chavez did. At around 2 am
this morning, Caracas time, Chavez conceded his first electoral defeat
since winning Venezuela's presidency in 1998. After facing an unusually
strong protest movement on the streets of Venezuela's major cities ?
led not by traditional opposition figures but by university students
who'd grown fearful that Chavez was moving the country toward a
Cuba-style dictatorship ? his reforms were narrowly beaten back by a
51% to 49% margin. The result, and Chavez's graceful acceptance of it,
may well have set not only Venezuela, a key U.S. oil supplier, but all
of Latin America on a far surer path to democracy in the 21st century.
"This was a photo finish," Chavez told his stunned backers after his
defeat was announced. "Don't feel sad, don't feel burdened."

Only about half of Venezuela's 16 million registered voters showed up
at the polls on Sunday. Low turnout was supposed to have hurt the
opposition's NO vote; but in the end it was Chavez, thought to have a
reliable populist political machine at his disposal to get out the YES
vote, who couldn't rouse his base among Venezuela's majority poor. Even
that cohort, despite having benefited from Chavez's vast socialist
project, backed away from his bid to solidify "21st-century socialism,"
which also would have put the autonomous Central Bank under his control
and exerted deeper federal authority over local and state governments.
Given the fact that Venezuela's National Assembly and Supreme Court are
already Chavez's rubber stamps, those issues seem to have overridden
the economic carrots Chavez's reform package held out, like expanded
social security benefits and shorter working hours (from 8 to 6 hours
each day).

Venezuelans also appear to have told Chavez and his Bolivarian
Revolution (named for South America's 19th-century independence hero,
Simon Bolivar) that despite the country enjoying the fruits of record
oil prices ? the country has the hemisphere's largest oil reserves ?
they're fatigued by almost a decade of polarizing revolutionary rule
and would like to return to some normalcy. "This is a country divided
in two," said Stalin Gonzalez, a student at the Central University of
Venezuela in Caracas. "There's a part that loves Chavez and a part that
hates him. A middle ground is lacking. We won't build a country that
way."

The movement led by Gonzalez and tens of thousands of fellow students
proved decisive: they articulated an opposition message and galvanized
its sympathizers far more effectively than Venezuela's older political
elite ever could. It was a force Chavez had not planned on reckoning
with, particularly since students have long been a bloc that Latin
America's political left could depend on. Chavez also couldn't
withstand the defections within his own bloc, including socialist state
Governors and, perhaps most important, his erstwhile pal and former
Defense Minister, Raul Baduel, who earlier this month called Chavez's
amendments a "constitutional coup d'etat." The attempt by Chavez and
his backers to demonize figures like Baduel ? labeling them
"traitors" ? backfired, especially since Baduel had helped put Chavez
back in power after a botched opposition coup attempt against him in
2002.

But just as important was Chavez's concession. The opposition "won this
victory for themselves," he admitted in a voice whose subdued calm was
in contrast to his frequently aggressive political speeches. "My
sincere recommendation is that they learn how to handle it." Despite
his authoritarian bent, Chavez (whose current and apparently last term
ends in 2012) had always insisted he was a democrat ? that he was, in
fact, forging "a more genuine democracy" in a nation that had in many
ways been a sham democracy typical of a number of Latin American
countries. His presidential election victories ? in 1998, 2000 and
2006, as well as his victory over an attempt to recall him in a 2004
referendum ? were all recognized by credible international observers;
and that conferred on him a democratic legitimacy that helped blunt
accusations by his enemies, especially the U.S., that he was a would-be
dictator in the mold of Fidel Castro.

In the end it was a cachet that, fortunately, he knew he couldn't
forfeit. As a result, the referendum result will resonate far beyond
Venezuela. Latin Americans in general have grown disillusioned by
democratic institutions ? particularly their failure to solve the
region's gaping inequality and frightening insecurity ? and many
observers fear that Latin Americans, as they so often have in their
history, are again willing to give leaders like Chavez inordinate, and
inordinately protracted, powers. Chavez, critics complained, was in
fact leading a trend of what some called "democratators" ?
democratically elected dictators. His allies in Bolivia and Ecuador,
for example, are hammering out new Constitutions that may give them
unlimited presidential re-election. The fact that Venezuelans this
morning resisted that urge ? and that Chavez so maturely backed off
himself when he saw it ? may give other countries pause for thought as
well. It could even revive the oft-ridiculed notion that this might
after all be the century of the Americas.

****************

5)
Venezuela Hands Narrow Defeat to ChC!vez Plan
By Simon Romero
The New York Times
December 3, 2007
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/03/world/americas/03venezuela.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

Mr. ChC!vez's supporters at Miraflores Palace in Caracas after the
results were announced. More Photos B;

It was the first major electoral defeat in the nine years of his
presidency. Voters rejected the 69 proposed amendments 51 to 49 percent.

The political opposition erupted into celebration, shooting fireworks
into the air and honking car horns, when electoral officials announced
the results at 1:20 a.m. The nation had remained on edge since polls
closed Sunday afternoon and the wait for results began.

The outcome is a stunning development in a country where Mr. ChC!vez and
his supporters control nearly all of the levers of power. Almost
immediately after the results were broadcast on state television, Mr.
ChC!vez conceded defeat, describing the results as a "photo finish."

"I congratulate my adversaries for this victory," he said. "For now, we
could not do it."

Opposition leaders were ecstatic. "Tonight, Venezuela has won," said
Manuel Rosales, governor of Zulia State and the opposition's candidate
in presidential elections last year.

In recent weeks, members of previously splintered opposition movements
joined disillusioned ChC!vez supporters in an attempt to defeat the
referendum on constitutional changes. The plan would abolish term
limits, allow Mr. ChC!vez to declare states of emergency for unlimited
periods and increase the state's role in the economy, among other
measures.

The defeat slows Mr. ChC!vez's socialist-inspired transformation of the
country. Venezuela, once a staunch ally of the United States, has
become a leading opponent of the Bush administration's policies in the
developing world. It has also taken the most profound leftward turn of
any large Latin American nation in decades.

The referendum followed several weeks of street protests and frenetic
campaigning over the amendments to the Constitution proposed by Mr.
ChC!vez and his supporters. It caps a year of bold moves by the
president, who forged a single Socialist party among his followers,
forced a television network critical of the government off the public
airwaves, and nationalized oil, telephone and electricity companies.

In Caracas on Sunday, turnout in poorer neighborhoods, where support
for Mr. ChC!vez is strong, indicated that the referendum was drawing a
mixed response. Lines were long in some areas and nonexistent in others.

"The whole proposal is marvelous," said Francis Veracierta, 52, a
treasurer at a communal council here, one of thousands of local
governing entities loyal to Mr. ChC!vez that he created this year. After
awakening to predawn fireworks, she said she joined a line at 6 a.m. to
vote at a school in Petare, an area of sprawling hillside slums here.

"The power is for us in the community," said Ms. Veracierta, wearing a
red shirt, red cap and belt with Che Guevara's face on it. She said she
credited Mr. ChC!vez's government for giving her a $3,800 loan to start
a small clothing business.

Some of Mr. ChC!vez's populist proposals, including an increase in
social security benefits for some workers, have been praised even by
his critics.

Turnout in some poor districts was unexpectedly low, indicating that
even the president's backers were willing to follow him only so far.
Some ChC!vez supporters expressed concern that if they voted against the
measures they might be retaliated against. Turnout of registed voters
was just 56 percent.

There was no line in front of the voting center at the Cecilio Acosta
school in Petare on Sunday morning, as a few dozen people who had
already voted milled about the street. Some volunteers working the
voting machines sat idle, waiting for more voters to arrive. Other
voting centers in Petare had lines outside, but they were less than
half a block long.

"I'm impressed by the lack of voters," said Ninoska GonzC!lez, 37, who
sells cigarettes on the street. "This was full last year." She
described herself as a "Chavista" who voted for the president in last
year's presidential elections, but said she voted against his proposed
changes on Sunday.

"I don't agree with some articles," Ms. GonzC!lez said. Asked about the
measure to pay social security benefits to workers in the informal
economy like her, she said, "That's a lie."

Confusion persisted Sunday over the amendments, with a major complaint
among the president's supporters and critics that they had too little
time to study the proposals.

Unlike in past votes here, this time the government did not invite
observers from the Organization of American States or the European
Union, opening itself to potential claims of fraud.

In recent weeks, Mr. ChC!vez has adopted an increasingly confrontational
tone with critics abroad, who have been multiplying even in friendly
countries with moderate leftist governments like Brazil and Chile.

In the days before the referendum, Mr. ChC!vez recalled his ambassador
from Colombia and threatened to nationalize the Venezuelan operations
of Spanish banks after Spain's king told him to shut up during a
meeting. Mr. ChC!vez said he would cut off oil exports to the United
States in the event of American interference in the vote.

The United States remains the largest buyer of Venezuela's oil, despite
deteriorating political ties, but that long commercial relationship is
starting to change as Mr. ChC!vez increases exports of oil to China and
other countries while gradually selling off the oil refineries owned by
Venezuela's government in the United States.

Venezuela's political opposition, normally divided among several small
political parties, found common cause in calling on its members to vote
against the amendments. An increasingly defiant student movement also
protested here and in other large interior cities against the proposed
charter.

In a move that alarmed the opposition, electoral officials over the
weekend revoked the observer credentials of Jorge Quiroga, a former
president of Bolivia and an outspoken critic of Mr. ChC!vez. Mr. Quiroga
accused security forces here of following him after his arrival in
Caracas. "They've taken my credential but not my tongue," Mr. Quiroga
said.

Mr. ChC!vez, whose followers already control many powerful
institutions ? the National Assembly, the federal bureaucracy, the
national oil company, the Supreme Court and all but a handful of state
governments ? relied on an unrivaled political machine to gather
support for the measures.

Uncertainty over Mr. ChC!vez's reforms, meanwhile, has led to
accelerating capital flight as rich Venezuelans and private companies
rush to buy assets abroad denominated in dollars or euros. The
currency, the bolC-var, currently trades at about 6,100 to the dollar in
street trading, compared with an official rate of 2,150.

Venezuela's state-controlled oil industry is also showing signs of
strain, grappling with a purge of opposition management by Mr. ChC!vez
and a retooling of the state oil company to focus on social welfare
projects while aging oil fields need maintenance.

PetrC3leos de Venezuela, the state oil company, says it produces 3.3
million barrels a day, but OPEC places its output at just 2.4 million
barrels. And private economists estimate that a third of oil production
goes to meet domestic consumption, which is surging because of a
subsidy that keeps gasoline prices at about seven cents a gallon.

Still, Mr. ChC!vez already has unprecedented discretionary control over
Venezuela's oil revenues, valued at more than $60 billion a year.
"Because of its oil, Venezuela has global reach in OPEC and the rest of
Latin America," said Kenneth R. Maxwell, a professor of Latin American
history at Harvard University.

****************

6)
Venezuelans Deny ChC!vez Additional Authority
President Concedes Defeat in 51-49 Vote
By Juan Forero
The Washington Post
December 3, 2007
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/12/02/AR2007120200522.html

CARACAS, Venezuela, Dec. 3 -- Venezuelan voters delivered a stinging
defeat to President Hugo ChC!vez on Sunday, blocking proposed
constitutional changes that would have given him political supremacy
and accelerated the transformation of this oil-rich country into a
socialist state.

Hours after the final ballots were cast, the National Electoral Council
announced at 1:15 a.m. local time Monday that voters, by a margin of 51
to 49 percent, had rejected 69 reforms to the 1999 constitution. The
modifications would have permitted the president to stand for
reelection indefinitely, appoint governors to provinces he would create
and control Venezuela's sizable foreign reserves.

ChC!vez immediately went on national television and conceded before a
roomful of government allies and other supporters. "I thank you and I
congratulate you," ChC!vez said calmly, directing his comments to his
foes. "I recognize the decision a people have made." ChC!vez admitted,
though, that he had found himself in a quandary on Sunday night as
votes were being tallied, because the vote was so close. But he said
that with nearly 90 percent of 9 million ballots counted, it became
clear that his opponents' victory was irreversible. "I came out of the
dilemma," he said, "and I am calm."

The victory for the "No" vote represents the first electoral setback
for ChC!vez, 53, a former lieutenant colonel who won the presidency in a
1998 landslide and, until now, had trounced his opponents in one
referendum and presidential election after another. Political analysts
had said last week that the populist leader had lost standing this year
after implementing unpopular policies, such as canceling a television
station's broadcast license and displaying increasingly erratic
behavior in verbal spats with foreign leaders.

ChC!vez had campaigned furiously in recent days after polls showed that
Venezuelans would reject the reforms. But he faced an eclectic and
widespread opposition that included university students, Roman Catholic
leaders and human rights groups.

Particularly damaging to the government was the defection of several
longtime allies, including the former defense minister, RaC:l Baduel,
and the head of an influential, pro-ChC!vez party, Ismael GarcC-a.
Pollsters said that gave the "No" vote undeniable momentum late last
month.

"People who have been with ChC!vez do not support the reform," said
Elixio Fusil, who lives in a pro-ChC!vez district in western Caracas and
voted against the reforms. "He wants a blank check, and that's
impossible. We're not stupid like he thinks. It's that simple. There
are conscious, thinking people here, too."

The referendum capped a whirlwind year for ChC!vez, who won a second
six-year term with 63 percent of the vote last December and promptly
announced he would radicalize what he calls his Bolivarian revolution.
He nationalized electric and telephone utilities, wrested the huge oil
sector from ExxonMobil and other corporations, cancelled the concession
for RCTV, a stridently anti-government station, and oversaw an
expanding state presence in the economy.

ChC!vez also moved on his constitutional changes, announcing in a speech
in January that he would seek an amendment that would permit him to run
for office indefinitely. On a late-night talk show on state television
in recent days, he said he needed more time to consolidate broad
socioeconomic changes in Venezuela.

"Four or five years are not enough," he said. "I've just done the basic
course."

Venezuelan voters, though, did not want to give ChC!vez more time beyond
the five years he has left on his six-year term.

"Today I think people are voting for democracy, voting for balance, for
a process of checks and balances," said Oscar Arnal, an international
studies professor who voted against the reforms.

*****************

7)
Voters reject Chavez's reform bid
By Chris Kraul
The Los Angeles Times
December 3, 2007
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-venezuela3dec03,0,5342203,full.story

CARACAS, Venezuela ? Voters on Sunday defeated a package of
constitutional reforms that could have indefinitely extended President
Hugo Chavez's grip on power here. It was a shocking electoral loss for
the strongman, his first in nine years at the helm.

Voters defeated two ballot measures that would have changed 69 articles
in Venezuela's Constitution, which was rewritten in 1999, the year
Chavez took office. Margins were tight on both, with the "no" votes
edging the "yes" votes by 50.7% to 49.3% and 51% to 49%.

At a news conference after the National Electoral Council's release of
its official bulletin that declared the results to be "irreversible" at
1:20 a.m. local time, Chavez exhorted his supporters, "Don't feel sad
or weighed down. . . . This was a microscopic difference but with the
'no's' on top.

"I congratulate my opponents for their victory. To use a phrase from
February 1992, we've fallen short for now," a reference to Chavez's
admission of defeat after his abortive coup attempt that ended in his
imprisonment but that launched his political career.

Some analysts predicted before the results were released -- nine tense
hours after balloting ended -- that the loss, in destroying Chavez's
mantle of invincibility, would embolden his domestic opponents. What
seems certain is that the defeat will energize the opposition,
especially student groups that took to the street to oppose the reforms.

"We'll continue in the struggle to build socialism within the framework
of this constitution," Chavez said, holding aloft a booklet containing
the 1999 constitution.

Chavez said he could have prolonged the tension by demanding continued
scrutiny of the votes, but decided to concede defeat to spare the
nation possible conflict.

"Those of you who were nervous I wouldn't recognize the results, you
can go home quietly and celebrate."

Voter turnout was a low 55%, a level analysts thought would never carry
opponents to victory.

The vote was closer than any of Chavez's seven previous nationwide
votes dating back to his election to office in December 1998, all of
which he won handily. Chavez framed the reforms as critical to
deepening his socialist Bolivarian Revolution, which has channeled
billions of oil dollars to social outreach programs for free education,
healthcare and discount groceries for the poor.

But even Venezuelans living below the poverty line -- the bedrock of
Chavez's power base -- have grown increasingly skeptical about the
reforms and disenchanted with Chavez, pollsters said. Ill feeling was
being driven by higher prices and scarcities of basic foods, including
milk, chicken and beans. Last week, people waited three hours in lines
to purchase staples at some government-run Mercal grocery stores.

"The hard Chavez vote has always been a utilitarian vote," said Jose
Antonio Gil Yepes, president of the polling firm Datanalisis. "Although
they still feel a personal loyalty to Chavez, those poor voters who
always got something from Chavez are getting less."

Slayings and other crimes have skyrocketed and housing programs have
fallen short of Chavez's grandiose promises. But voters in poor Caracas
barrios said their loyalty to Chavez was unswerving.

"I voted for him," said Freddy Mijares, 32, a bakery employee, after
casting a ballot in Plaza Lazaro Cardenas in central Caracas. "For the
changes that we have seen and those that are coming."

Mechanic Enrique Casana, who voted in favor of the reforms at a polling
place near the barrio where Chavez cast his ballot, said the president
deserved support because "people who before had nothing now have
something. . . . The scarcities aren't his fault. It's that of people
who are hoarding things."

The most controversial element of the reforms would have extended
presidential terms to seven from six years and allowed the president to
run for reelection indefinitely.

Currently, the president can be reelected only once. Chavez raised the
prospect of perpetual power in a closing campaign speech Friday to tens
of thousands of red-shirted supporters on Avenida Bolivar, saying he
would remain in office until 2050 or age 95 "if the Venezuelan people
ordain it."

But critics also were concerned about changes that would have expanded
the president's discretionary powers, giving him control of billions of
dollars in central bank reserves and enabling him to create new
regional and municipal entities ruled by vice presidents whom he would
name and whose powers would take precedence over that of elected
governors and mayors.

Supporters and opponents alike were expecting Chavez to use the reforms
to push through laws strengthening the concepts of communal property in
the form of worker-run cooperatives managed collectively by "communal
councils."

But Rafael Simon Jimenez, a historian who once was a Chavez supporter
and an assemblyman, spoke for many critics when he described the
constitutional reforms as less an ideological document than a political
one, a plan designed to concentrate power in the president's hands.

"Chavez is a man to whom it has never occurred to be an ex-president of
Venezuela," Jimenez said in an interview Sunday evening.

Chavez's goal is authoritarian in nature, said Agustin Blanco Munoz, a
researcher at Central University of Venezuela who wrote a biography
based partially on jailhouse interviews he conducted after Chavez was
imprisoned for leading the unsuccessful 1992 coup attempt.

"His model isn't communism or socialism. It's a varnish, a cover for a
personalist system that exalts Chavez above all else as the caudillo,
the new messiah, not the collective society," Blanco Munoz said.

Before the vote, public opinion firms Datanalisis and Consultores 21
agreed that only a huge voter turnout could turn the tide against
Chavez. That's because turnout in past votes has been significantly
higher among pro-Chavez voters than the opposition, meaning a high
abstention level would favor a "yes" vote.

Sunday's vote was the closest since 2004, when Chavez successfully beat
back a recall initiative to oust him from office.

In the Friday speech and in a three-hour news conference Saturday,
Chavez made little mention of the contents of the proposal, instead
pulling on two tried and tested campaign levers: personal loyalty and
foreign threats. A vote against the reforms would be tantamount to
betrayal of him and the Venezuelan people, he told the tens of
thousands of followers amassed on Avenida Bolivar.

To foreign reporters convened at the Miraflores presidential palace
Saturday, he said he had become aware of a CIA plan dubbed Operation
Tenaza to assassinate him.

He said Venezuela's dignity was besmirched at the Iberoamerican Summit
last month when Spanish King Juan Carlos I told him, "Why don't you
shut up?" and that Spanish banks and other companies could be
nationalized unless he got an apology.

"I have a file this thick of Spanish companies in Venezuela and I am
reviewing all of them," Chavez said.

In the run-up to the vote, the Venezuelan leader also had a public spat
with Colombian President Alvaro Uribe over the latter's termination of
Chavez's role in mediating the release of prisoners held by leftist
Colombian rebels.

****************

8)
Chavez defeated over reform vote
BBC News
December 3, 2007
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7124313.stm

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has narrowly lost a referendum on
controversial constitutional changes.

Voters rejected the reforms, which included allowing a president to
stand indefinitely for re-election, by 51% of the vote to 49%,
officials said.

Mr Chavez accepted the result and urged his followers to remain calm.

Mr Chavez said his reform agenda would go on but correspondents say the
result will put a brake on his self-styled "socialist revolution".

Celebrations began almost immediately in the capital, Caracas, among
activists who had opposed the president's raft of proposals, which
included ending limits on presidential terms, halting the central
bank's autonomy and cutting the working week.

"Venezuela won today, democracy won today, and I am sure that this
victory for the Venezuelan people will have a very important impact in
the rest of Latin America," Leopoldo Lopez, opposition mayor of the
Chacao of Caracas, municipality, told the BBC.

'Don't feel sad'

The BBC's James Ingham in Caracas says Mr Chavez had expected a big win
and will be very disappointed.

However, the president swiftly conceded and urged the opposition to
show restraint.

"To those who voted against my proposal, I thank them and congratulate
them," he said. "I ask all of you to go home, know how to handle your
victory."

He insisted that he would "continue in the battle to build socialism".

"For now, we couldn't do it," he said, repeating words he spoke after
his failed coup attempt in February 1992.

But he said he would continue to push his reform plans.

"I will not withdraw even one comma of this proposal, this proposal is
still alive," he said.

Our correspondent says that some of Mr Chavez's loyal supporters have
gone against him on this occasion.

Though some of them may still support him, he says, they think he has
gone a little too far in a country which has a history of dictatorships.

BBC Americas reporter Julian Miglierini says many analysts are pointing
to the abstention rate of 44%.

He says the bulk of those who abstained are thought to be Chavez
supporters who chose not to endorse the reforms, while voters backing
the opposition turned out in droves.

The result marks the president's first electoral reverse since he won
power in an election in 1998.

Since then he has set about introducing sweeping changes in the
country's laws aimed at redistributing Venezuela's oil wealth to poorer
farmers in rural areas.

Just a year ago, he was re-elected with 63% of the vote.

But analysts say the defeat should cause him to rethink the pace and
scope of his reforms.

Having lost the vote, the current rules state that he will have to
stand down in 2013.

The White House welcomed the result.

"It looks like the people spoke their minds, and they voted against the
reforms that Hugo Chavez had recommended and I think that bodes well
for the country's future and freedom and liberty," spokeswoman Dana
Perino said. 

*****************

9)
Venezuelans Reject Chavez's Plans for Constitution
By Matthew Walter and Helen Murphy
Bloomberg
December 3, 2007
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=ak8fnHsg5Rx4

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez suffered his first electoral loss in
nine years as voters turned down his plan to revamp the constitution
and cement his power.

Chavez conceded the outcome today, while saying his ideas are ``still
alive.''

``This is a democracy,'' the president said in Caracas. ``For me, this
isn't a defeat. This is for now.''

The loss signals waning support for Chavez's drive to bring socialism
to the region's fourth-biggest economy by concentrating power in his
hands and ramping up state control of private lives. Voters refused to
abolish presidential term limits or allow government censorship during
declared emergencies. Chavez also sought to shorten the work day and
end central bank autonomy.

``This is the first significant setback that Chavez has ever had,''
said Adam Isacson, director at the Center for International Policy in
Washington. ``He has lost popular support. He has lost support of some
of the army and the poor.''

He has also lost confidence of investors. The government's 9 1/4
percent dollar bond due in 2027 tumbled 22 percent this year, with
almost half the loss coming in the month before the referendum.

Oil Fuels Growth

Chavez's 69 proposed changes to the constitution were grouped into two
blocks. The first set was rejected 50.7 percent to 49.3 percent, the
second block 51.1 percent to 48.9 percent. About 8.88 million people
voted, or 56 percent of those eligible, according to a statement on the
election agency's Web site.

Venezuela's 9 1/4 percent bond due in 2027 rose 4.10 cents on the
dollar at 8:27 a.m. New York time, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.
The bond's yield fell 0.45 percentage point to 8.92 percent from 9.37
percent on Nov. 30.

Chavez's use of the words ``for now'' in his concession speech echo a
statement he made after his failed attempt to overthrow the government
in 1992. After that, ``for now'' became a rallying cry for his
supporters.

``I wouldn't be surprised if in the next few months he pushes most of
the ideas through the National Assembly,'' said Daniel Linsker, who
heads the Americas desk for Control Risks, a London-based business risk
consulting company. ``He comes out looking like a democrat; Chavez is
now legitimate and still looking for a way to remain in office.''

`Empowered'

While oil exports fueled annual economic growth of more than 8 percent
over the past four years, the South American country has a credit
rating below investment grade. Its annual inflation rate, 17.2 percent,
is the highest in the region.

``The opposition will emerge from its vote more energized and
empowered,'' said Gianfranco Bertozzi, a senior Latin America economist
for Lehman Brothers in New York. ``If handled carefully the event could
even herald a crumbling of the Bolivarian revolution, although it's
still early.''

Cheers, fireworks and the banging of pots and pans could be heard in a
mostly anti-Chavez Caracas neighborhood after the results were
announced. Supporters of the changes tore down posters that read ``Si
con Chavez.''

``The reform has just faded away, but our president is still with us,''
said Yenier Bedoya, 22, a student and a nurse.

Four months after Chavez unveiled his plan to write a constitution that
would quicken his so-called Bolivarian socialist revolution, some polls
showed the referendum too close to call.

`Over the Top'

Opposition parties, student groups and some former allies, most notably
Chavez's ex-Defense Minister Raul Isaias Baduel, the general who
returned him to power after a 2002 coup, campaigned against the
proposal.

Their contention that the new constitution was a power grab resonated
with some of Chavez's supporters.

``President Chavez has given us much, but this time he's gone over the
top,'' Darwin Rodriguez, 23, a glass blower, said in an interview in
Caracas.

Baduel said after the results were announced that Chavez may continue
to push for the reforms he sought.

``We should be alert to the possibility that these changes will be
imposed through a different route than the constitution,'' he said in
comments broadcast by Globovision.

Demonstrations

Demonstrations turned violent at times over the past three months as
police regularly used tear gas and water cannons to control crowds of
protesters.

Chavez sought to fire up his backers with escalating attacks on the
U.S., foreign investors and the media in his final speeches before the
vote.

He told tens of thousands of supporters at a Nov. 30 rally that he was
prepared to cut off exports of oil to the U.S., Venezuela's biggest
trading partner, should the U.S. government try to stir up violence in
the country after the referendum. He also said he may nationalize
Spanish banks operating in the country to defend the ``dignity'' of
Venezuela, after Spanish King Juan Carlos I told him to ``shut up''
earlier this month.

Economists said the proposed changes to the constitution would curb
private investment and slow growth in Venezuela, South America's
third-biggest economy and its biggest oil exporter.

``The ball is in Chavez's court,'' said Teodoro Petkoff, a former
planning minister and editor of opposition newspaper Tal Cual, in
comments broadcast by Globovision. ``He can send a message to the
country: enough division, enough blaming, enough saying that if someone
is against him that person is against the world, a coup-monger, a
snake.''

Chavez said last week that if voters approve his plan, he's prepared to
stay in power until 2050.

``It's still too early for me to go,'' the former army lieutenant
colonel said Nov. 30. ``I'll give my life for Venezuela until the last
day.'' 

*****************

10)
Bush administration pleased with ChC!vez defeat
By Pablo Bachelet
The Miami Herald
December 3, 2007
http://www.miamiherald.com/558/story/329872.html

WASHINGTON -- The Bush administration on Monday hailed as a victory for
democracy the rare electoral defeat handed to Venezuelan President Hugo
ChC!vez, its most vociferous foe in Latin America.

ChC!vez narrowly lost a referendum on constitutional reforms that would
have allowed him to seek unlimited reelection and press ahead with his
socialist revolution. The defeat reinvigorated a Venezuelan opposition
humbled by 11 straight election defeats.

The Bush administration kept a low profile during the campaign, wary of
transforming an event into a U.S.-Venezuela confrontation. ChC!vez
regularly casts his opponents, both in Venezuela and abroad, as U.S.
stooges.

''We congratulate the people of Venezuela on their vote and their
continued desire to live in freedom and democracy,'' Gordon Johndroe, a
White House National Security Council spokesman, said in an e-mail to
The Miami Herald.

The State Department also was pleased.

''We felt that this referendum would make Chavez president for life,
and that's not ever a welcome development,'' U.S. Undersecretary of
State Nicholas Burns told reporters in Singapore, according to the
Associated Press. ``In a country that wants to be a democracy, the
people spoke, and the people spoke for democracy and against unlimited
power.''

Florida Republican Rep. Connie Mack, an outspoken congressional
opponent of ChC!vez, shot off a statement headlined ``Freedom wins!''

''The people of Venezuela have spoken,'' he said. ``They want to live
in freedom. They have rejected Hugo ChC!vez's Bolivarian Revolution.
They despise his vicious assaults on freedom and free markets, and they
fear his cozy relationships and friendships with the likes of the
Iranian Mullahs.''

But Mack warned that ChC!vez still has five years in office, ``a long
window for him to continue to make mischief in Venezuela and around the
world.''

Roger Noriega, former assistant secretary of state for the Western
Hemisphere, believed the margin of victory was broader in favor of the
'no' vote, but that ChC!vez had no choice but to admit defeat.

''It will be a bitter pill and he will be slashing in every direction
and will provoke another crisis,'' said Noriega, who often engaged in
verbal duels with ChC!vez until leaving office in 2005.

''If he overreaches again or soon, he will be risking everything, and
he knows it,'' Noriega said.

*****************

11)
ChC!vez Suffers Major Setback In Vote on Constitutional Overhaul
By John Lyons
The Wall Street Journal
December 3, 2007
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119666016117711628.html?mod=hps_us_whats_news

CARACAS, Venezuela -- In a stunning reversal, Hugo ChC!vez, Venezuela's
virulently anti-U.S. leader, conceded early Monday that voters narrowly
defeated a constitutional reform he sought to expand his executive
powers and allow him to stand for election indefinitely.

After long and unexplained delays, election officials announced that
Mr. ChC!vez's proposal had been narrowly defeated in a chaotic press
conference after 1 a.m. in Caracas (12 a.m. EST.) Mr. ChC!vez later
appeared on television to accept the results as celebratory fireworks
and honking horns erupted across Caracas.

"I congratulate my adversaries in their victory," said Mr. ChC!vez. "We
are steeled for a long battle." The outcome is a humiliating defeat for
Mr. ChC!vez, who had turned the referendum into a plebiscite, telling
Venezuelans that a "no" vote was tantamount to treason. Until now, Mr.
ChC!vez had won every political contest he faced by landslide margins.

ChC!vez detractors charged that the referendum was part of a strategy to
use elections to dismantle Venezuela's democracy and replace it with a
Cuba-style dictatorship.

The referendum laid the groundwork for Mr. ChC!vez to remain in office
for many years, if not for life. As it stands, Mr. ChC!vez, who was
first elected in 1998, isn't eligible to run in the country's 2012
vote. The 53-year-old former military officer had also sought power to
create new states and appoint governors to run them, as well as powers
to spend central-bank reserves.

Mr. ChC!vez, who still has several years to go in his presidency,
characterized his concession speech as proof that Venezuela has a
thriving democracy. He also vowed to continue to seek the broad powers
outlined in the referendum. "This proposal is still alive," Mr. ChC!vez
said in the press conference, as supporters applauded.

The defeat for Mr. ChC!vez, who is accustomed to trouncing opponents by
20 percentage points, shows how many of his own supporters have soured
on his policies amid rising crime and persistent scarcities of basic
goods.

High on the list of complaints is food shortages. Mr. ChC!vez's decision
to fix prices has resulted in acute scarcities of many staples. Last
week, the government-owned luxury hotel, the Alba, was refusing to
serve customers cafe con leche, a Venezuelan breakfast standard.

"In all my life, I never would have thought there would be no milk in
Caracas," said Luis Morillo, a 30-year-old bodyguard who was standing
in line to vote in Caracas's working-class Catia district, a
traditional ChC!vez stronghold. Mr. Morillo said he planned to vote
against the changes.

To be sure, Mr. ChC!vez retains a deep reservoir of support among
Venezuela's majority poor and working class. Riding a global oil boom,
Mr. ChC!vez has boosted spending on health care, food subsidies and work
programs. Government spending was rising at an annual rate of 70% in
late 2006, although the rate has since slowed to about 40%.

That helps explain why Mr. ChC!vez can count on voters such as Marisol
Herredia, a 38-year-old hairdresser. She said she was unnerved by how
much power the constitutional changes would give Mr. ChC!vez, but she
voted for it anyway, she said. The changes also guarantee her a fixed
monthly salary and health insurance, benefits too good to pass up.

Mounting student protests against the changes in recent weeks raised
fears of violence during yesterday's vote, but balloting was mostly
peaceful. Around midday, celebrating bands of pro-ChC!vez motorcyclists
began buzzing the streets, waving flags and launching bottle rockets.

Such celebrations began to wane as the night grew long and election
authorities declined to release results. ChC!vez opponents, mainly
students, held raucous rallies filled with optimism that they might
have beaten the odds and eked out an unlikely victory.

Voter abstentions were high, a trend seen as favoring Mr. ChC!vez.
Before the vote, many middle-class opponents split over whether
participating in elections is worthwhile; some suspect they are rigged.

****************

12)
Voters reject Chavez's bid for new powers
By Richard Lapper and Benedict Mander
The Financial Times
December 3, 2007
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/32a960c2-a14f-11dc-9f34-0000779fd2ac.html

Venezuelans on Monday rejected constitutional reforms that would have
granted sweeping new powers to President Hugo Chavez and accelerated
progress towards 21st century socialism, handing an embarrassing defeat
to the country's left-wing leader.

Provisional results - based on 90 per cent of the vote - showed 50.7
per cent of voters rejected the changes, with 49.3 per cent in favour.
Mr Chavez said the result was a "photo-finish" but conceded defeat and
said that "we respect the rules of the game."

However, Mr Chavez promised to "continue the battle to build socialism
within the framework of this [the 1999] constitution. This proposal is
alive. It has not died... We know how to convert difficult moments into
moral victories and eventually into political triumphs."

A relatively high rate of abstentions - 44.8 per cent of voters failed
to turn out - was the decisive factor, according to Mr Chavez. "A good
number of our people didn't turn out. They said abstention would
benefit us. It defeated us."

First elected in 1998, Mr Chavez has won a succession of nationwide
polls by wide margins, most recently scoring a landslide triumph in
last December's presidential election with more than 60 per cent of the
vote.

Armed with this strong mandate he has introduced a string of socialist
economic and political measures, nationalising telecommunications,
electricity and oil industries and forcing a popular opposition
television station off the public airwaves.

Bolstered by high oil prices, he has continued to spend heavily on
education, health care, housing and subsidised food.

However, increasing state intervention, including exchange controls,
price controls and import restrictions, and a big decline in private
investment, are leading to severe distortions. This in turn is fuelling
inflation, now running at an annual rate of 21 per cent over the past
12 months, the highest in the region, and creating widespread shortages
of basic foods such as milk and sugar.

"The incompetence of the government's economic management has created
the worst of both possible worlds: high inflation and scarcity," says
Teodoro Petkoff, editor of Tal Cual, an opposition newspaper.

In addition, Mr Chavez's radical political proposals have alienated
many erstwhile supporters. Socialist deputies who have supported him
for more than a decade backed the opposition's referendum campaign,
while General Raul Isaias Baduel, the former defence minister and
long-time military comrade of the president, came out against the
changes last month.

Mr Baduel, who enjoys considerable support among senior members of the
armed forces, has argued that the constitutional proposals amounted to
a coup d'etat.

Mr Chavez's decision not to renew the license of RCTV, the opposition
TV station, triggered protests by students in both public and private
universities, and this movement also played an important role in the
referendum campaign.

****************

13)
Venezuelan Constitutional Reform Vote Concludes Peacefully
By Gregory Wilpert and Chris Carlson
Venezuelanalysis
December 2, 2007
http://www.venezuelanalysis.com/news/2949

Caracas and MC)rida - Voting on President Chavez's constitutional reform
proposal proceeded normally today in practically all of Venezuela, with
only a very few minor incidents reported. Most voting stations closed
on time, at 4pm, with a few remain open a bit longer, while those in
line finished voting. Participation appeared to be lower than during
last year's presidential election, but seemed higher than some people
had feared it would be.

As has become custom in Venezuela, sound trucks drove through the
streets of the capital Caracas, sounding a wake-up call trumpet at
around 4am, to wake people up to go out to vote. Voting centers opened
at 6am and in many places lines began forming at 5am.

Reports from voting centers indicated that participation was good and
the voting process was relatively fast and smooth, compared to previous
electoral events. Opposition voting center witnesses often claimed,
though, that the indelible ink that voters dip their finger in to mark
that they have voted, was not really indelible, suggesting that voting
more than once might be possible.

Also, technical mishaps occurred in some voting centers, so that some
voting machines did not work, but the Tibisay Lucena, the president of
the National Electoral Council (CNE), said that the percentages of
failing voting machines was within the normal bounds and that they
could be replaced in time, so that only minor delays occurred.

The publication of exit polls or anticipated results, prior to the
first official CNE results, is strictly forbidden by CNE regulations.
Nonetheless, some international news agencies and the rumor mill within
Venezuela raised hopes on both sides that their side was winning.

Nonetheless, both sides began gathering, with Chavez supporters ready
to celebrate outside Miraflores presidential palace and opponents
gathering in the middleclass district of Chacao in Caracas.

The CNE was expected to present its results sometime between 10pm and
11pm. Around 9pm "Yes" campagin spokesperson, Vice-President Jorge
Rodriguez, conceded that the results will be close.

Over 16 million voters were able to cast their vote today on whether
citizens wanted to accept a constitutional reform proposal that
President Chavez had initiated and that had been modified by the
country's National Assembly.

The reform is to change 69 articles of Venezuela's 1999 constitution
and covers a wide variety of issues, ranging from deepening the
country's participatory democracy, strengthening social inclusion,
reorganizing the country's interior political jurisdictions, and
strengthening aspects of the president's powers.

Merida

The electoral process in the city of Merida took place with complete
tranquility and normalcy. Most voters turned out in the early hours of
Sunday morning, when voting centers had some long lines of people
waiting outside, but by mid-morning voting centers had shorter lines of
voters waiting to vote.

In the southern sector of the Pedregosa voters stated that the turnout
seemed to be lower than in other national elections, and by mid-morning
the small lines at voting centers seemed to confirm that. A longer line
of voters outside one voting center explained that voting had been
slightly delayed there due to two broken voting machines, but otherwise
the voting process appeared to be taking place in total normalcy.

Two students from the University of the Andes (ULA) stated that
students were gathering outside the Economics department of the
university to await the results. The Economics department of the ULA
has traditionally been the center of anti-Chavez activity, and is the
home to Movimiento 13, the right-wing opposition group led by Nixon
Morenos, who led violent riots in Merida in 2006 and has teamed up with
the U.S. Embassy to hold political forums at the university.

Although political demonstrations are outlawed on this electoral
weekend, the students gathering at the university this afternoon could
mean that some riots could take place later this evening if the
electoral results do not come out in their favor. One voter stated,
however, that while students of the University of the Andes are
politically active in the city of Merida, many of them are not from the
Merida area, and thus travel to other parts of the country to vote.

The state of Merida has traditionally been one of the zones with the
lowest support for President Hugo Chavez, and barely went in favor of
Chavez in the 2006 presidential elections. The majority of voters in
the city of Merida voted against Chavez in 2006, but the surrounding
rural areas of the state, which have stronger support for him, swung
the total back in favor of the president last December. 

****************

14)
Chavez Backers Rally for Charter Changes
By Edison Lopez
The Associated Press
November 30, 2007
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/11/30/AR2007113000222.html

CARACAS, Venezuela -- President Hugo Chavez urged supporters Friday to
approve constitutional changes that he said could keep him in power for
life and threatened to cut off oil exports to the United States if it
tries to meddle in Sunday's vote.

Speaking to more than 200,000 supporters, Chavez warned that his
opponents at home could try to sabotage the vote with backing from
Washington through violent protests on the night of the vote.

"If 'Yes' wins on Sunday and the Venezuelan oligarchy, the violent
Venezuelans _ the ones who play the (U.S.) empire's game _ unleash
violence with the tale that there was fraud ... minister, that very
Monday you order a halt to the shipments of oil to the United States,"
Chavez said, addressing his oil minister, Rafael Ramirez.

Venezuela was the fourth largest oil exporter to the United States in
2006.

Halting exports to the U.S., the No. 1 buyer of Venezuelan oil, would
cut off a major source of income for the Venezuelan government.

Chavez dismissed Venezuelans who oppose the constitutional changes as
beholden to U.S. interests.

"Anyone who votes 'No' is voting for George W. Bush," he said. "Our
real enemy is called the U.S. empire, and on Sunday, Dec. 2, we're
going to give another knockout to Bush, so no one forgets that is the
battlefield."

Chavez's opponents have called for close monitoring of results in what
they expect to be a tight contest, raising tensions ahead of a vote on
sweeping changes that would left Chavez seek re-election in 2012 and
indefinitely.

"If God gives me life and help," Chavez said, "I will be at the head of
the government until 2050!" _ when he would be 95 years old.

"To the Venezuelan oligarchy and the U.S. empire, from here I'm warning
them that they won't be able to stop the car of the Bolivarian
Revolution, because on Sunday we will approve the constitutional
reform," Chavez said.

There were no independent crowd estimates, but reporters estimated the
crowd at more than 200,000.

The government cites polls showing Chavez leading ahead of the
referendum, while other polls have predicted a close race.

Pollster Luis Vicente Leon, whose firm Datanalisis found the "no"
option leading in a poll earlier this month, said Friday that two other
later tracking polls by his firm found Chavez had closed the gap and
the two sides were statistically about even.

"We don't know who's going to win," Leon said. "The result will depend
on the level of abstention that ends up happening. Whoever has the
greatest weight to achieve turnout among their voters at the polls is
going to win."

In Washington, State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said the
United States hopes the referendum will be "a free and fair contest in
which the will and desire of the Venezuelan people is reflected."

The Venezuelan Embassy in Washington responded with its own release,
saying McCormack's statements "are aimed at generating doubts regarding
our electoral branch and asserting that there are no guarantees that
the result of the elections expresses the will of the majority of the
people."

Chavez also threatened to expel journalists for the CNN international
news network if they assisted in any plot to overthrow his government.

If CNN "came here to lend its correspondents to an imperialist
operation, they will be thrown from the country," Chavez said.

On Tuesday, he accused the network of promoting his assassination,
after CNN en Espanol aired a picture of him and his Colombian
counterpart Alvaro Uribe with the words "And who killed him?"
superimposed. CNN said the airing, which lasted a few seconds, was a
mistake, and the text corresponded to another news item.

The pro-Chavez rally in Caracas came a day after opponents filled the
same avenue promising to defeat revisions that would also create new
forms of communal property and expand Chavez's powers to reshape
Venezuela as a socialist state.

Chavez denies he is trying to amass power, saying the changes are
necessary to give the people a greater voice in government and to move
toward a socialist system.

Human Rights Watch warned the reforms would threaten fundamental
rights, citing one revision allowing the president to declare
indefinite states of emergency during which the government could detain
citizens without charge and censor the media.

"These amendments would enable President Chavez to suspend basic rights
indefinitely by maintaining a perpetual state of emergency," said Jose
Miguel Vivanco of the New York-based group.

Chavez's opponents also have questioned the National Electoral
Council's impartiality, especially after Chavez named its former chief,
Jorge Rodriguez, as his vice president in January. But in contrast to
past elections, when the opposition has boycotted votes or been split
on whether to participate, this time many opposition leaders are
emboldened and urging voters to turn out in large numbers.

University students have led protests and occasionally clashed with
police and Chavista groups. One man was shot dead Monday while trying
to get through a road blocked by protesters.

The opposition also has been heartened by some recent defections from
Chavez's movement, including former Defense Minister Gen. Raul Baduel.
Even Chavez's ex-wife, Marisabel Rodriguez, has urged Venezuelans to
vote "no."

About 100 electoral observers from 39 countries in Latin America,
Europe and the United States are on hand, plus hundreds of Venezuelan
observers, the National Electoral Council said.

Yet, absent this time are the Organization of American States and the
European Union, which have monitored past votes.

Chavez's opponents have been suspicious of electronic voting machines
made by Boca Raton, Florida-based Smartmatic Inc., which is primarily
owned by three Venezuelans. But Luis Enrique Lander of the Venezuelan
vote-monitoring group Ojo Electoral said his team is satisfied with
vote preparations and safeguards.

___

Associated Press writers Jorge Rueda and Fabiola Sanchez contributed to
this report.

****************

15)
Chavez Bluster Surges Ahead of Referendum
By Juan Forero
The Washington Post
December 1, 2007
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/11/30/AR2007113002235.html

CARACAS, Venezuela, Nov. 30 -- On the eve of a referendum that
President Hugo ChCB!vez has cast as a plebiscite on his rule, the
populist leader is escalating his verbal assaults on foes real and
imagined, picking a fight with neighboring Colombia one day and
assailing Catholic Church leaders as "mental retards" the next.

ChCB!vez's behavior appears increasingly unpredictable, but some
political analysts say the bluster may be a tactic designed to generate
support for the constitutional changes that Venezuelans will vote on in
Sunday's referendum. Although a few weeks ago the proposals had been
expected to receive easy approval, polls released last week showed that
the opposition could ultimately prevail in a tight contest.

"He's decided that his best tactic to recover the control of his
movement is to instill fear in his people that there's a world
conspiracy against Venezuela," said Demetrio Boersner, a political
analyst and former diplomat. "It's a tactic that uses histrionics as a
weapon to unite the people so they vote for him on Sunday."

The government says the rhetoric is no scare tactic, but rather a
response to concerns that a destabilization plan is in the works.
Officials point to negative press coverage, coupled with the Bush
administration's statements questioning the fairness of the vote.

"There's an offensive to criminalize Venezuela, to say that Venezuela
is falling into an abyss, that it's a country of dictators, of
Castro-style communism, a country that helps terrorists," Bernardo
Alvarez, Venezuela's ambassador in Washington, said Friday in a phone
interview.

This week ChCB!vez accused CNN of instigating an assassination attempt,
asserted that the church is fomenting dissent and called the president
of neighboring Colombia a "liar" who couldn't be trusted. He didn't
forget the United States, either, saying the CIA was busy hatching a
plan to stir tumult.

In speech after speech, ChCB!vez avoids dwelling on unpopular proposals
for change, including one that would permit him to run for office
indefinitely and another that would give him the power to appoint
provincial governors. Instead, he depicts his opponents as conspirators
out to crush his self-styled revolution. He vows to thwart any coup
attempts, like one in 2002 that briefly ousted him and had Washington's
tacit support.

"The revolution is peaceful, but it's not unarmed," he warned his foes
on state television. "There's an army. There's a navy. There's an air
force. There's a national guard. There's soldiers, there's cadets and
the people. Don't consider it, because you'll repent."

He then added: "If you launch an offensive, I will launch a
counterattack."

The harangues are a staple of ChCB!vez's government, which in its nine
years has transformed Venezuela's social and political model by ousting
the elites who once ruled and providing widespread programs for the
poor. Those programs have given ChCB!vez solid, sometimes overwhelming
support.

But some analysts say the particularly bellicose behavior of recent
days may be working against ChCB!vez.

Mark Feierstein, an American who has polled in Venezuela for years,
said the president's supporters, known as Chavistas, also tire of the
rhetoric.

"Venezuela is one of the most polarized countries in the world, and it
really pains people when they see him reinforcing that," Feierstein
said. "When we'd do focus groups with Chavistas, they would talk in
mostly positive tones about ChCB!vez, but the one thing that would
bother them is CChCB!vez's belligerence."

The president's behavior has been making international headlines since
early this month when, at a summit in Chile, he called former Spanish
prime minister JosC) MarC-a Aznar a "fascist." After a long diatribe by
ChCB!vez, the king of Spain, Juan Carlos, became so agitated that he
leaned across a table and said to the Venezuelan: "Why don't you shut
up?"

ChCB!vez has not paid heed. He also hasn't forgotten -- or forgiven. He
later declared that relations with Spain, a major investor in
Venezuela, would be "frozen" until the king apologized. The king has
yet to do so.

"There will not be a million kings who will want to keep my mouth shut,
because I speak in the name of Venezuela," ChCB!vez later said.

Then, after President Clvaro Uribe of Colombia last week ended
CChCB!vez's role in mediations with that country's guerrilla group,
ChCB!vez said that Uribe's actions were "brutal" and disrespectful of
Venezuela -- even if ChCB!vez had sidestepped diplomatic protocol, as
Uribe contended.

ChCB!vez withdrew his ambassador from Bogota and, in televised comments
Wednesday, said Uribe was capable of "barefaced lies." "If he does that
to me," ChCB!vez said, "imagine how he is with the poor Colombian
people."

In the closing days of campaigning for the referendum, with the
government holding huge rallies, officials have continued to warn of
anti-ChCB!vez plots that could originate in the church or the business
community.

Indeed, the authorities said they were going to investigate church
leaders as well as CNN, which came under criticism after placing a
caption reading, "Who Killed Him?" on a photograph of ChCB!vez. The
network said the caption was an error, designed for a story about the
investigation into the murder of Washington Redskins player Sean Taylor.

On Friday, a day when an estimated 200,000 people in Caracas rallied in
support of ChCB!vez, officials saw yet one more possible sign of
conspiracy. Toilet paper is in short supply -- as are milk, eggs and
other staples.

"We know there are sectors hiding toilet paper," Finance Minister
Rodrigo Cabezas said on state television. "A group of business leaders
are playing mean, playing dirty." He said it was designed to "create
the sensation of product shortage during the election."

****************

16)
Students Become Potent Adversary To ChC!vez Vision
By Juan Forero
The Washington Post
December 2, 2007
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/12/01/AR2007120101636.html

CARACAS, Venezuela, Dec. 1 -- Pro-government gunmen have shot at them,
and the president has called them "fascists" and "spoiled brats" who
will stop at nothing to oust him.

But an eclectic group of university students, some from Venezuela's
sprawling public campus and others from elite private schools, have
formed perhaps the most credible and potent opponent to President Hugo
ChC!vez's proposed constitutional changes.

The proposal, which would expand ChC!vez's powers, goes to a vote
Sunday, but polls show that what would have been an easy victory for
ChB?vez a few weeks ago is now a tossup.

With Venezuela's opposition parties in tatters, and key opposition
leaders weakened by one ChC!vez victory after another, the students have
emerged as the conscience of a country where many opponents of the
president had, until recently, been resigned to his increasing
influence, said Fernando Coronil, a Venezuelan academic at the
University of Michigan who has written extensively about Venezuelan
history.

"The student movement is very diverse and heterogeneous," Coronil said.
"They're a new actor in Venezuelan politics, with a new discourse that,
I think, is very interesting historically."

In recent days, the president and many of his closest allies in the
government have spent hours on state television discrediting the
students and accusing them of having ties to oligarchs who want to rule
Venezuela for the rich. The president and his allies also insist that
pro-ChC!vez students well outnumber those who oppose him, and to be
sure, there have been sizable mobilizations of students who support the
changes.

"Today, it's been proven that it's false what the media says, that the
students are anti-government," ChC!vez said in a recent speech to
university students who marched in his support. "The truth has been
shown: Venezuelan students are with the revolution and will vote yes."

Many of the anti-government students and their leaders do hail from
such elite universities as Andres Bello, the prominent Catholic
university in Caracas. And some student groups have received funding
for workshops from the U.S. Agency for International Development,
according to documents made available to The Washington Post on
Saturday.

The U.S. documents, obtained through a freedom of information request
filed by a researcher for the National Security Archive at George
Washington University, show that $216,000 was provided from 2003
through this year to unnamed student groups at several universities for
"conflict resolution," "democracy promotion" and other programs.

Jeremy Bigwood, the researcher, has obtained other documents in recent
years showing U.S. aid for anti-ChC!vez groups. He said these documents
show, at the very least, that the Bush administration wanted to "keep a
finger on the pulse of the student movement."

"I don't think it's a major influence upon the student movement. It's
minor," Bigwood said. "My gut feeling is that there is an authentic
student movement."

A spokeswoman at the American Embassy in Caracas, Jennifer Rahimi, said
that the United States supports "nonpartisan civil society activity"
but that there is no funding for the opposition movement. "There is no
conspiracy to affect the outcome of the constitutional referendum," she
said.

Many of the students who have joined the swelling movement against the
changes are from the country's largest public university, the Central
University of Venezuela, which enrolls 40,000. The students are
decidedly leftist, opposed in principle to the Bush administration and
aligned with a political shift in which moderately leftist governments
have been elected across the continent.

Among the leaders is Stalin Gonzalez, 26, a law student whose father
was once a member of the radical Red Flag movement here. He grew up in
the poor Catia district, and his father had such affinity for the left
that he named his children after three towering figures of communism --
Joseph Stalin, Vladimir Lenin and Friedrich Engels.

Stalin Gonzalez, though, said he does not regard ChC!vez as a leftist --
but rather as an autocrat whose administration is intent on
accumulating power. Gonzalez is particularly worried about
constitutional changes that would permit the president to run for
office indefinitely, appoint governors to specially created federal
territories and control the country's finances.

"I think they're obsessed and in love with the power," he said.

He stressed, though, that he and other student leaders are not focused
on ousting ChC!vez but on defeating the referendum and, next year,
advocating a national reconciliation for their sharply polarized
country.

"Our intention is not to direct the opposition or be the new leaders of
the opposition," he said. "The theme here is reconciliation."

Gonzalez shares the leadership with students from more elite
universities, namely Yon Goicoechea and Freddy Guevara, both of the
Andres Bello Catholic University.

"This is not a war of left and right," said Goicoechea, a law student.
"We believe that Venezuela has to have democracy. Democracy means
respect. Democracy means free expression. Democracy means saying what
you want without repression."

Such accusations sting a government that has won numerous elections and
remains popular with the poor because of its social programs. But
ChC!vez has shown little but contempt for the anti-government student
movement, calling the leadership "terrorists."

In an interview, Bernardo Alvarez, the Venezuelan ambassador in
Washington, softened the government's position. But he raised questions
about ties the anti-government student movement might have to the
traditional political class.

"We have to ask: What's the agenda? What's their proposal? Is it about
student issues, or politics?' " he asked.

The student movement picked up momentum this spring as ChC!vez undertook
an unpopular but ultimately successful campaign to take an
anti-government television station off the public airwaves. The
movement again mobilized in recent weeks as the government began to
campaign for the constitutional changes.

"We were preparing for the scenario of losing," said Guevara, 21, who
studies communications. "We thought the political parties and social
movements wouldn't be strong enough to go against the government's
political machine."

The ideals of the movement have motivated young students such as Andres
Lizarazo, 18, who participated in a recent protest.

"We're strong, very strong," said Lizarazo, a business student at the
Catholic university. "They can't stomp on us. The students have to take
the country ahead. We're the future of the country."

****************

17)
The Smart Way to Beat Tyrants Like ChC!vez
By Donald Rumsfeld
The Washington Post
December 2, 2007
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/11/30/AR2007113001800.html

Today the people of Venezuela face a constitutional referendum, which,
if passed, could obliterate the few remaining vestiges of Venezuelan
democracy. The world is saying little and doing less as President Hugo
ChC!vez dismantles Venezuela's constitution, silences its independent
media and confiscates private property. ChC!vez's ambitions do not stop
at Venezuela's borders, either. He has repeatedly threatened its
neighbors. In late November, Colombia's president, Alvaro Uribe,
declared that ChC!vez's efforts to mediate hostage talks with Marxist
terrorists from the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC,
were not welcome. ChC!vez responded by freezing trade with Colombia.

With diplomatic, economic and communications institutions designed for
a different era, the free world has too few tools to help prevent
Venezuela's once vibrant democracy from receding into dictatorship. But
such a tragedy is not preordained. In fact, we face a moment when swift
decisions by the United States and like-thinking nations could
dramatically help, supporting friends and allies with the courage to
oppose an aspiring dictator with regional ambitions.

The best place to start is with the prompt passage and signing of the
Colombian free trade agreement, which has been languishing in Congress
for months. Swift U.S. ratification of the pact would send an
unequivocal message to the people of Colombia, the opposition in
Venezuela and the wider region that they do not stand alone against
ChC!vez. It would also provide concrete economic opportunities to the
people of Colombia, helping to offset the restrictions being imposed by
Venezuela -- and it would strengthen the U.S. economy in the bargain.

The importance of the Venezuela-Colombia clash goes beyond turmoil in
the U.S. back yard. The episode can help us understand what's at stake
in a new age of globalization and information, an age in which trade
networks can be as powerful as military alliances. Extending freedom
from the political sphere to the economic one and building the global
architecture, such as free trade agreements, to support those
relationships can -- and should -- be a top priority for the United
States in the 21st century.

Since the first years of the Cold War, 10 presidential administrations
have operated within an institutional framework fashioned during the
Truman administration: NATO, the United Nations, the World Bank, the
International Monetary Fund, the CIA, the Defense Department, Voice of
America and the National Security Council. Over six decades, the United
States and the rest of the free world have benefited from those
institutions, which led to victory in the Cold War and helped maintain
international order thereafter.

But with the passage of more than half a century, the end of the Cold
War, the attacks of 9/11 and the rise of an Islamic extremist movement
that hopes to use terrorism and weapons of mass destruction to alter
the course of humankind, it has become obvious that the national
security institutions of the industrial age urgently need to be adapted
to meet the challenges of this century and the information age.

At home, the entrenched bureaucracies and diffuse legislative processes
of the U.S. government make it hard to creatively, swiftly and
proactively handle security threats. Turf-conscious subcommittees in
Congress inhibit the country's ability to mobilize government agencies
to tackle new challenges. For example, U.S. efforts to build up the
police and military capacity of partner nations such as Afghanistan,
Iraq and Pakistan to fight al-Qaeda and other extremists have been
thwarted over the past six-plus years by compartmentalized budgets,
outdated restrictions and budget cycles that force a nation at war to
spend three years to develop, approve and execute a program.

The United States has also lost several tools that were central to
winning the Cold War. Notably, U.S. institutions of public diplomacy
and strategic communications -- both critical to the current struggle
of ideas against Islamic radicalism -- no longer exist. Some believed
that after the fall of the Soviet Union such mechanisms were no longer
needed and could even threaten the free flow of information. But when
the U.S. Information Agency became part of the State Department in
1999, the country lost what had been a valuable institution capable of
communicating America's message to international audiences powerfully
and repeatedly.

Meanwhile, a new generation of foes has mastered the tools of the
information age -- chat rooms, blogs, cellphones, social-networking Web
sites -- and exploits them to spread propaganda, even while the U.S.
government remains poorly organized and equipped to counter with the
truth in a timely manner. The nation needs a 21st-century "U.S. Agency
for Global Communications" to inform, to educate and to compete in the
struggle of ideas -- and to keep its enemies from capitalizing on the
pervasive myths that stoke anti-Americanism.

Many existing international institutions are also falling short. The
United Nations -- which elected Syria and Iran to a commission on
disarmament, Sudan to one on human rights and Zimbabwe to one on
sustainable development -- can hardly be considered a credible arbiter
of international issues and dialogue. Endemic inertia and corruption
threaten to render the United Nations even less effective in the 21st
century.

NATO, the great bulwark against communist expansion, could be usefully
reoriented toward today's threats to the nation-state system -- global
problems that can be successfully dealt with only by broad coalitions
of nations capable of efficiently executing collective decisions. By
building bilateral and regional partnerships with other like-thinking
countries -- such as India, Singapore, Australia, Japan, South Korea
and Israel -- NATO could evolve into a diplomatic and military
instrument of the world's democratic and capitalist societies.

We also must reinvigorate the structures that support global
prosperity. Free trade seems to be slipping out of fashion in Congress
and the presidential campaign, with some candidates calling for a
"timeout" for free trade and the abolition of current agreements, such
as NAFTA and CAFTA. But the world will need a network of trading
nations to provide a way to change the circumstances of people in poor
nations. Strong U.S. economic relations with the countries of Latin
America, Asia, Africa and the Middle East would encourage international
development and investment even as they build closer ties among the
United States and its allies. The prosperity that trade pacts foster
has proved to be one of the most effective weapons against internal
instability and international aggression.

Today's global order is threatened not only by violent extremists,
rogue regimes, failing states and aspiring despots such as ChC!vez. It
is also threatened by the complacent assumption that our domestic and
global institutions, in their present form, can meet these growing
menaces.

In the first years of the Cold War, the free world's leaders created
the new institutions necessary to prevail against communism. Sixty
years later, six years into a new ideological struggle, in the face of
new challenges from asymmetric warfare, in an age in which information
mixes with weapons of unprecedented lethality, these old institutions
by and large remain arrayed to deal with the enemies of the last
struggle, not the enemies of today.

Pundits tend to focus on individuals, not institutions. Personalities,
after all, garner more headlines than do bureaucracies and agreements.
But when institutions no longer serve our interests well -- or, worse,
hamper important efforts -- we need to hear more about reform through
public commentary, in Congress and on the campaign trail. The next
president will face the issue of reforming domestic and international
institutions -- and will need to accelerate the efforts begun by
President Bush. We can prevail by mustering the same resolve that
President Harry S. Truman and others demonstrated 60 years ago.

Donald Rumsfeld is a former secretary of defense.

****************

18)
ChC!vez power play in voters' hands
By Tyler Bridges and Casto Ocando
The Miami Herald
December 2, 2007
http://www.miamiherald.com/548/story/328613.html

CARACAS -- Backed by a barrage of ads on government airwaves, President
Hugo ChC!vez is betting on victory in a vote Sunday that would give him
nearly absolute control of Venezuela and solidify his role as the
leader of Latin America's anti-U.S. left in the post-Castro era.

But ChC!vez's proposal to amend the Venezuelan Constitution -- including
the right for him to seek reelection indefinitely -- is losing in some
of the latest polls, and the outcome remains in doubt for a president
who has not lost a national vote since 1998.

The results of the vote will have repercussions far beyond this country
of 27 million people. A ChC!vez victory would sharpen the bitter and
long-running conflict with the United States, which buys about 10
percent of its oil imports from Venezuela.

ChC!vez himself has made a point of presenting the vote as one more
chapter in the battle against ''the empire.'' 'Anyone who votes `No' is
voting for George W. Bush,'' Chavez shouted to a sea of supporters
Friday. ``Our true enemy is the U.S. empire, and on Sunday, Dec. 2,
we're going to give another knockout to Bush.''

ChC!vez and his supporters say they will accept Sunday's outcome,
whatever the results. Opposition leaders have refused to make the same
pledge, saying they fear that the president will resort to fraud to
win, if necessary.

''The future of Venezuela's democracy depends on the outcome,'' said
Omar Barboza, president of the biggest opposition party. ``ChC!vez wants
to establish the Cuban model in Venezuela.''

For his part, ChC!vez said: 'He who says he supports ChC!vez but votes
`no' is a traitor, a true traitor. He's against me, against the
revolution and against the people.''

On Saturday he warned against attempts to stir up violence, and
threatened to cut off oil exports to the U.S. if Washington interferes.
''In the case of an aggression by the United States government, we
wouldn't send any more oil to that country . . . Forget about our
oil,'' he told reporters.

FOES MAY NOT VOTE

Most polls in recent days have shown a majority rejecting the proposed
amendments. But Sunday's outcome will depend largely on the turnout,
since many ChC!vez opponents plan to stay home to avoid legitimizing a
pro-ChC!vez result that they say is preordained.

ChC!vez has taken no chances leading up to Sunday's voting. Ads
extolling the benefits of the proposed changes have blanketed
government television and radio stations in recent days.

The ads have focused on changes that are particularly popular with
voters: reducing the work week from 40 hours to 36; extending the
pension system to include maids, street vendors and others in the
informal economy; and giving the citizens more say by creating new
neighborhood councils.

The ads have downplayed or ignored the more controversial amendments
that would abolish presidential term limits, lift some civil rights
during declared states of emergency, and make it easier for the
government to nationalize private property.

In rural areas, where ChC!vez supporters have traditionally been the
overwhelming majority, the presence of the ''no'' campaign has been
minimal.

A daylong tour of the Barlovento region of Miranda state -- where poor,
peasant communities predominate -- revealed not a single ''no'' poster
but many houses displaying ''yes'' posters.

Some violence erupted during the referendum campaign, with one person
killed and several dozen injured in clashes during pro-ChC!vez and
anti-ChC!vez marches.

But the campaign has been carried out with a gaiety absent from U.S.
elections.

More than 100,000 people donned pro-ChC!vez red T-shirts on Friday and
assembled on a downtown Caracas boulevard, backed by pounding drums,
piercing whistles and waving flags. Eight television stations --
including five government channels -- showed ChC!vez live giving the
campaign's closing speech. His two-hour speech ended with fireworks.

Government workers were given the afternoon off Friday. One of the
red-clad marchers from Petroleos de Venezuela, S.A., the
government-owned oil company, was asked why he was supporting a
socialist-oriented referendum when PDVSA has profited mightily in the
past three years from a free-market system that has pushed prices to
nearly $100 a barrel.

Socialism doesn't mean ending the free-market system, said the marcher,
Diego RamC-rez, a PDVSA engineer. ``It means making sure that the
resources of the state are distributed more equally so everyone
benefits.''

At a time that Venezuela enjoys Latin America's fastest-growing economy
-- as well as the region's highest inflation rate -- ChC!vez has
emphasized sharing the benefits.

Poverty in Venezuela declined from 49 percent of the population in
1999, when ChC!vez took office, to 30 percent in 2006, the U.N. Economic
Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean reported last month.

But opponents believe that a majority of Venezuelans reject the
proposed constitutional reforms and that ChC!vez is planning to hijack
the outcome, if necessary.

At least two studies carried out by Venezuelan engineers and
technicians indicate that the electronic voting system employed in the
balloting is vulnerable to manipulation.

''There definitely exist ways to compromise various components of the
electoral system,'' said MarC-a Mercedes Febres, an engineer and
statistics specialist who is part of Esdata, which has studied the
voting machines. Febres said that investigations have shown that
''invisible'' software that doesn't leave a trace could sway the
tabulations.

QUESTION OF SECURITY

Another study, by the Technical Follow-up Group, which audited the
voting system last December, said that although the system is
''robust'' and ''secure,'' tamperproof results cannot be guaranteed.

Analysts note that opponents complained of fraud in previous vote
tallies, but failed to provide solid evidence.

Venezuelan election officials have dismissed criticism, promising that
the machines will deliver honest tallies.

''All of the necessary audits have been conducted so far of the voting
system, including the revision of software, codes and programs, among
others, and everything is working properly,'' said Tibisay Lucena,
director of Venezuela's National Electoral Council, which will certify
the results.

Another concern of opponents is the voter registry, which they say has
implausibly doubled in size to nearly 17 million people over the past
six years.

A study last year by Genaro Mosquera, a professor at the Central
University of Venezuela, found that the voting rolls were riddled with
the names of people who are dead, who didn't have a real address, or
who had the same name and birthdate.

''There's an enormous risk that a favorable result in the referendum
would be an electoral fraud,'' said Cristal MontaC1ez, coordinator of an
opposition group based in Houston, which denounced the voting-roll
inconsistencies two weeks ago to the Organization of American States.

****************

19)
As world watches Venezuela, other leaders make moves
By Andres Oppenhiemer
The Miami Herald
December 2, 2007
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/columnists/andres_oppenheimer/story/328612.html

MANAGUA, Nicaragua -- While the world was looking at Venezuela's
referendum -- which could grant near absolute powers to President Hugo
ChC!vez this weekend -- the ChC!vez-backed leaders of Bolivia, Ecuador
and Nicaragua were carrying out what many in their countries describe
as constitutional coups.

Was it a coordinated effort? Is there something -- other than
Venezuela's oil money -- that is fueling these and other Latin American
leaders' totalitarian temptations? Or is it the collapse of the
collective defense of democracy system that Latin American countries
used to defend each other's democratic institutions until a few years
ago?

Bolivia's President Evo Morales and Ecuador's President Rafael Correa
late last week had their constitutional assemblies pass measures that
will lead to a steady accumulation of power, allow their indefinite
reelection, and strip the opposition of much of their political space.

In Nicaragua, where I happened to be this weekend, President Daniel
Ortega late Friday officially launched his Councils of Citizens' Power
(CPCs), citizens' committees that he described as new tools to create a
``direct democracy.''

The CPCs will be led by his wife, increasingly powerful first lady
Rosario Murillo, and will be run by the government, despite a
congressional ruling that specifically banned Ortega from creating a
government-backed parallel power structure that could overshadow
democratically elected governments.

''There is a clear intent by Ortega to forcefully take control of
democratic institutions and break the rule of law,'' former 2006
presidential candidate and center-right congressman Eduardo Montealegre
told me after Ortega's announcement.

Edmundo JarquC-n, a center-left former presidential candidate who also
ran against Ortega in the 2006 elections, told me that Ortega is trying
to stage a ``de facto institutional coup.''

But most politicians across the political spectrum I talked to agreed
that Ortega will have a harder time than ChC!vez, Morales or Correa to
gain absolute power, no matter how hard he tries. Among the reasons:

? First, unlike ChC!vez, the Nicaraguan president doesn't have oil or
any other source of massive government income. On the contrary,
Nicaragua is one of Latin America's poorest countries. Ortega has no
money to bankroll a campaign to get support for a totalitarian project.

? Second, unlike ChC!vez, Ortega runs a minority government, in which
the opposition controls the National Assembly. Ortega won the
presidency with barely 38 percent of the vote, largely thanks to a
split among right-of-center parties, and a recent poll by M&R
Consultores shows that only 22 percent of Managua residents have a
positive opinion of him.

? Third, Ortega's growing delegation of powers to his wife is creating
growing discontent within his own Sandinista forces.

? Fourth, Ortega does not control the army nor the police, and has
little support from the media. In fact, he routinely complains that the
media is run by the ''oligarchy,'' and that journalists are Nazi
propaganda chief Joseph Goebbel's ``children.''

I asked retired general Humberto Ortega, the president's brother and
the former chief of the armed forces during the 1979-90 Sandinista
regime, whether the Nicaraguan president's creation of the CPCs amounts
to a move toward an elected dictatorship.

The former leftist revolutionary commander, who has moved to the center
but remains close to his brother, said creation of the CPCs ''may be an
abuse of power, but they are not aimed at breaking the democratic
institutions of this country.'' He added, referring to his brother, ``I
have never detected that he wants to move in the direction of breaking
the rule of law.''

Ortega may have pushed the envelope a bit too far trying to strengthen
his own Sandinista base, or he may be trying to erode democratic
institutions to become a president for life. For the time being, it
looks like he's tempted to do the latter, but that -- barring a deeper
commitment by ChC!vez to bankroll Nicaragua -- he can't.

Amid news of escalating tension in Venezuela, Bolivia, and Ecuador,
something ChC!vez's former wife MarC-a Isabel RodrC-guez said in an
interview with Colombia's Radio Caracol on Thursday occurs to me.
Referring to ChC!vez's continental ''revolution,'' she said, ``What
started as a battle against poverty has ended up in a battle against
those who think differently.''

It says it all.

****************

20)
Venezuela's president and public enemy No. 1
By Sergio Munoz
The Los Angeles Times
December 2, 2007
http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-op-munoz2dec02,1,5940039.story

On Dec. 2, 1851, President Louis Napoleon Bonaparte dissolved the
French National Assembly and asked the people of France to make him
their sole ruler. Unsatisfied with the new presidential powers granted
by his citizens, he called for still more power in another plebiscite a
year later, and the French made him Emperor Napoleon III.

Today, 156 years to the day that Napoleon first sought unrivaled power,
President Hugo Chavez could become the sole ruler of Venezuela if
Venezuelan voters answer his call to approve 69 constitutional
amendments in a referendum.

The German philosopher Hegel observed that all facts of great
importance in history occur twice. Later on, Karl Marx amended Hegel's
principle, saying that the facts may occur twice but "the first time as
tragedy and the second as farce."

Napoleon III used his new powers to consolidate his rule at home and
expand his empire throughout Europe.

Judging by his hyperbolic rhetoric, Chavez also wants to extend his
influence outside of his country.The former paratrooper doesn't seem
satisfied to simply be the cacique of Venezuela. Chavez instead wants
to use his country's oil wealth to become Latin America's most
important power broker and an influential player on the international
stage. The Venezuelan president has repeatedly said that he wants to
bring the U.S. empire to its knees.

Does Chavez have the military and financial resources to play in the
same league as the U.S. and other world powers?

Venezuela's 2006 defense budget amounted to less than $2 billion, about
1.3% of its gross domestic product. His combined armed services --
army, navy and air force -- number about 82,000, according to
GlobalSecurity.org. In contrast, the U.S. has more troops in Iraq than
Chavez has in all three branches of his military.

But does Chavez pose any military threat to his neighbors? Not to
Brazil. Last year, it spent about $13.7 billion on defense, or about
2.6% of its GDP. Its combined military force totals nearly 310,000.
Colombia, whose defense budget last year was $3 billion, or 3.4% of its
GDP, need not fear Chavez either. According to the Colombian Embassy in
Washington, the combined forces of Colombia's army, navy and air force
number about 300,000.

Economically, Venezuela has vast oil riches, earning more than $30
billion in oil export revenues last year alone. But its gross domestic
product tells a different story. The International Monetary Fund ranks
Venezuela the 37th-richest among all nations, while the World Bank puts
it at 36th. By contrast, Brazil and Mexico are included in the
organizations' lists of the top 15 richest countries in the world,
though their poverty rates are quite high.

As for the U.S., Venezuela depends more on America than we do on it.
For instance, Citgo, a refinery and distribution network in the U.S.,
is a major revenue source for the Chavez government. The country is
also heavily dependent on U.S.-made components to keep its oil industry
operating, and it imports vast amounts of American consumer goods.
Clearly, Venezuela is in no position to push us around economically,
even though it is the fourth-largest exporter of oil to the U.S.

So, if Venezuela doesn't have the armed forces or the economic
resources to pose a real threat to the U.S. or even its neighbors,
should Washington be concerned with Chavez?

After nine years in power, Chavez's most powerful weapon in global
politics has been his mouth. After such early stumbles as approving of
an aborted coup against Chavez in 2002, the Bush administration, to its
credit, has learned from the mistakes of the Reagan administration's
approach to Nicaragua in the 1980s and not blown out of proportion the
capacity of the latest "comandante" to do harm outside his country.

For Venezuelans, the problem is not so much Chavez's words as his
actions. Chavez is most dangerous to his own people because he's intent
on doing away with democracy.

Having won the popular vote in four elections and plebiscites since
1999, Chavez is clearly a favorite among certain segments of the
population, and he has used the country's oil wealth to sustain and
build on his popularity. Oil export revenues pay for social and
economic campaigns called "missions," one of which provides free
reading, writing and arithmetic lessons to more than 1.5 million
adults. Assisted by Cuban doctors, his government provides primary
healthcare in the country's poorest neighborhoods.

But this has come at a price. No other leader in the hemisphere, save
for Fidel Castro, controls the executive, legislative, judiciary and
electoral functions of government as thoroughly as does Chavez. His
goal, according to Venezuelan publisher Teodoro Petkoff is to extend
his control deeper into the country's society.

Petkoff believes that Chavez is already close to that goal. Venezuela's
national education system, for instance, has become a vehicle for the
indoctrination of the so-called socialism of the 21st century.
Universities may lose their autonomy and have to answer to the state.
Although he says he doesn't want a media monopoly, Chavez is quick to
punish his critics, as he did RCTV, briefly withdrawing its
broadcasting license after it aired attacks on his policies.

But there's a bigger danger. Many Venezuelans believe that the proposed
constitutional amendments, if passed, will turn the country's
traditionally apolitical military into a political force in the United
Socialist Party that Chavez wants to create. That happened in Cuba
right after its revolution. Hopefully, voters will not let it happen in
Venezuela.

Sergio Munoz, a former Times editorial writer, is a contributing editor
to the paper.

*****************

21)
Chavez Government Touts Referendum Monitoring by U.S. Groups
By Viola Gienger
Bloomberg
December 1, 2007
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aFkuBRTpx4RE

The Venezuelan government of President Hugo Chavez is touting
election-monitoring missions by two U.S.-based organizations as
evidence that its referendum to be held tomorrow will be free and fair.

Six representatives from the NAACP civil-rights group and the National
Lawyers Guild will observe the vote on Chavez's plan to expand his
powers through a series of constitutional changes. The groups will
``evaluate the validity of the results,'' the government-funded
Venezuela Information Office said in an e-mailed statement yesterday.

The Venezuelan government is drawing on support from such groups in the
absence of international monitoring institutions such as the
Organization of American States, which wasn't invited this time.
Chavez, a vocal critic of President George W. Bush, faces opposition at
home to proposals such as ending presidential term limits and making it
easier to seize private property, and some pollsters predict a close
vote.

``The important thing is that the process goes OK and that all the
conditions are met'' for a verifiable result, Venezuelan Ambassador to
the U.S. Bernardo Alvarez told reporters in Washington yesterday.

Alvarez cited the participation of the Baltimore-based NAACP, also
known as the National Association for the Advancement of Colored
People, and the lawyers group as proof that the vote won't be rigged.

`Socialist Revolution'

Chavez says the changes he's proposing will further his socialist
revolution.

``Venezuela was a country of slaves, on its knees before the North
American empire,'' Chavez said yesterday during a speech at the rally,
broadcast by state television. ``Those that vote `yes' are voting for
Chavez, and those that vote `no' are voting for George W. Bush.''

Chavez has lost the backing of allies who say his proposals will
concentrate too much power in the presidency. About 100,000 protesters
filled streets in Caracas on Nov. 29 to urge a vote against the plan.

The Venezuelan government didn't invite the OAS to observe the election
this time as it has in the past, Patricia Esquenazi, a spokeswoman for
the organization, said by telephone th

******************

22)
ChC!vez's Electoral Coup
The Wall Street Journal
December 1, 2007
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119646466771709969.html

Political coups don't always wear khaki. Sometimes they take the form
of populist politicians who use "democracy" to consolidate their power.
That's the case in Venezuela, where President Hugo ChC!vez is promoting
a national referendum this Sunday that would give him vast new
authority. If he gets away with it, we hope his many American enablers
will acknowledge their contribution.

Voters are being asked to approve 69 "reforms" that amount to an
overhaul of the country's constitution. Mr. ChC!vez has promoted the
vote, despite the view of many constitutional scholars -- some of whom
are his former allies -- that these amendments require the election of
a constitutional assembly. No matter. The president announced the
referendum and had his rubber-stamp Congress approve it.

This is ironic, since Mr. ChC!vez all but wrote the 1999 constitution
himself. But he has tired of its checks and balances, especially its
decentralized power. He now wants to restore more authority to his
central government. Communal councils will rule locally, but their
members will no longer be elected; they will be appointed by the ChC!vez
government. His name for this is "participatory democracy," which he
prefers over the "representative" kind.

A "yes" vote will give the executive control over central bank
reserves. To promote his "productive economic model," Mr. ChC!vez is
also modifying private property rights. The new standard of ownership
will be "mixed properties held between the State, the private sector
and the communal power, so as to create the best conditions for the
collective and cooperative construction of a Socialist Economy."

The state will have the right to occupy any private property that it
plans to expropriate in advance of any judicial review. Any property
deemed by the state to be nonproductive could be transferred to "public
corporations, cooperatives, communities or social organizations."
Perhaps you thought this sort of thing went out of style about 1989.
But Mr. ChC!vez believes socialism didn't fail; it just wasn't tried
with enough gusto.

Moving right along, the reforms would give Mr. ChC!vez the right to be
re-elected indefinitely, and he will be able to name multiple
vice-presidents to govern with the communal councils. The President
will gain new powers to suspend due process during emergencies, and the
legislature will lose its role in determining how long those
emergencies last. To make all this go down with voters, Mr. ChC!vez has
included in the referendum a 36-hour work week, a reduction in the
voting age to 16, and more generous welfare benefits.

Mr. ChC!vez wouldn't be close to pulling this off if he hadn't already
used his nine years in power to neuter Venezuela's independent
political institutions. To gain control of the Supreme Court, Mr.
ChC!vez increased the number of justices to 32 from 20. Then he fired
the National Electoral Council (CNE) and named his own version, which
presided over a crooked and non-transparent August 2004 recall
referendum.

Former President Jimmy Carter nonetheless blessed that fraud, and the
Bush State Department went along too. For their part, Venezuelans have
so little faith in an honest vote that they boycotted the 2005
legislative elections; chavista candidates won 100% of the seats.

In 2002 Mr. ChC!vez also purged the military after it refused to fire on
protestors and briefly removed him from power. In that event,
Connecticut Senator Chris Dodd rushed to support Mr. ChC!vez while
ignoring the pleas of labor unions, human rights activists and
religious leaders that he was abusing his power. Another enthusiastic
supporter is Joseph P. Kennedy II, who in exchange for discounts on
Venezuelan oil has been promoting the president as a benefactor to
America's poor.

Despite this help from abroad, Mr. ChC!vez's popularity at home has been
dropping sharply as Venezuelans rebel against this electoral putsch.
Students have been pushing back hard against limits on free speech, and
even former ally General Raul Baduel has called the referendum a "coup
against democracy" and joined the opposition.

Polls show most Venezuelans are also opposed, but a genuinely fair vote
may be impossible. The President's electoral council controls the voter
rolls, the voting machines and the ultimate count. Yet whatever
Sunday's outcome, the real story of this referendum is that Mr.
ChC!vez's days as a Venezuelan hero are over. His grab for power is so
blatant that it has aroused a passive public, as shown by the huge and
peaceful "no" rally in Caracas on Thursday. Maybe his American friends
will even figure it out.

****************

23)
Poor disillusioned as ChC!vez pushes change
By Richard Lapper and Benedict Mander
The Financial Times
December 1, 2007
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/eccf170c-9fb1-11dc-8031-0000779fd2ac.html

Betty Rojas has every reason to feel disenchanted with the government
of President Hugo ChC!vez. A resident of the sprawling La Pedrera shanty
town in the south-west of Caracas, Ms Rojas says Venezuela's government
has been slow to help after landslides last month made her home unsafe
and cut off supplies of water and other services.

She now faces the prospect of eviction and a spell as a resident in a
former pasta factory that has been converted into a centre for the
homeless, and is bewildered by the prospect. "Nobody is providing any
answers," says Ms Rojas, a 32-year-old dressmaker.

But her disenchantment with the government will not lead her to vote
tomorrow against the president's plans to change the constitution and
accelerate Venezuela's transition towards 21st century socialism. "I
voted for ChC!vez last time but I will not vote at all on Sunday."

Other residents of La Pedrera are equally exasperated by official
inaction and complain that lack of maintenance made disaster
inevitable. Norma Valero, 40, who sells clothes on a market stall, is
upset at the prospect of living in the refuge. "ChC!vez builds houses in
Bolivia and Cuba. Why doesn't he do something for us. We are forgotten.
They move at the speed of a tortoise," she says. But angry though she
is, Ms Valero says she will abstain rather than vote against the
government. "I have no time for any of them."

La Pedrera's circumstances are exceptional. But the attitudes of its
hard-pressed residents reflect a broader disillusionment among Mr
ChC!vez's supporters. And that seems set to make the referendum much
more closely contested than any of the nationwide ballots held since
the president first took office in 1999.

Several developments over the past year have changed the mood in the
poor barrios , the heartlands of Chavista support. State-run
supermarkets still offer food at controlled prices but shortages are
often widespread. Maura Rojas, a 49-year-old teacher who lives in La
Pedrera, says: "You often can't get milk there at all and sugar doesn't
arrive."

The proposed constitutional changes have shocked erstwhile allies,
leading to high-profile defections from the government camp. Efforts to
control informal street traders and transport unions, as well as force
slum dwellers into new purpose-built "socialist cities" have also led
to dissension.

"This has been the first time I have ever heard people saying ChC!vez
has betrayed us," says Jesus Torrealba, an independent journalist who
broadcasts a daily radio programme from poor areas across Caracas.

Mr ChC!vez's decision in May to force RCTV, the rightwing media network,
off the air has been unpopular among poorer viewers who like its steamy
soap operas. At the same time, the RCTV move has served to revitalise
middle-class opposition. Previously apathetic students have taken to
the streets.

"There has been a change," says Ana Guevara, 20, communications student
at the MonteC!vila private university. "There is a lot of interest in
politics and almost unanimous rejection of the proposal." In turn,
student activism seems to have revived confidence in the opposition's
ability to mobilise its supporters. Clemente Guello, 35, an economist
who took part in a big march against the change on Thursday, said: "I
wasn't going to bother voting but I changed may mind when the students
started protests."

But it is not clear that this will be enough to defeat Mr ChC!vez's
project to reshape the constitution. Even in La Pedrera Mr ChC!vez can
still count on many votes. Margarita Lopez Maya, a sociologist who has
studied La Pedrera for many years and says its problems could easily
have been avoided, says the unwillingness of the residents to oppose Mr
ChC!vez is hard to believe. But for "the poor people there still really
is no other option".

                                 *
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