http://weekly.
Al-Ahram
Getting closer
A Gaza-Israel truce is on the horizon, though Israel is
still sabre rattling and seeking more Palestinian concessions, writes
Saleh Al-Naami
Ali sleeps for 28 hours when he returns home every weekend from a
Palestinian resistance training camp. This young man, 19, who lives in
the central Gaza Strip's Al-Nuseirat Refugee Camp, belongs to a
military arm of the resistance. Like many Palestinian youth in Gaza, he
receives military training in preparation to confront the major
campaign that Israel may wage against the Gaza Strip soon.
Abu Obeida, spokesperson of Hamas's military wing, the Ezzeddin
Al-Qassam Brigades, says that resistance factions are acting on the
assumption that a major Israeli military campaign against Gaza is about
to begin. They are therefore taking all appropriate steps to confront
it. Abu Obeida told Al-Ahram Weekly that increased recruitment to the
ranks of the Palestinian resistance followed statements made by
numerous Israeli leaders about Tel Aviv's intentions to wage a military
campaign against the Strip. Yet he added, "our military measures and
precautions do not mean that a military campaign against the Strip is a
done deal. We are taking the worst possibilities into consideration and
acting on their basis."
Statements recently issued by many Israeli officials have indicated
that Israel is preparing to conduct major military operations in Gaza.
This was particularly the case prior to, during, and following Egyptian
General Intelligence Chief Omar Suleiman's visit in which he put
forward the Egyptian truce proposal. During the last Israeli government
meeting Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert warned that the
"hour of reckoning" had arrived and that Israel would halt the firing
of missiles on settlements near the Gaza Strip at "any price". Acting
Israeli President Haim Ramon went even further when he stressed the
necessity of commencing a string of operations aimed at toppling Hamas.
Meanwhile, and following reservations, the Israeli army's leadership
changed its position on waging a wide-scale military campaign on Gaza.
Maariv, Israel's second largest newspaper, reported a military source
as saying that Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi opposes waging a
wide-scale military campaign in the Strip for fear that it wouldn't
halt the firing of missiles on Israel.
Hamas leader Ayman Taha says that Israeli threats did not make much of
an impression on him or his colleagues, who considered them an attempt
at 11th hour pressure to force Hamas to accept Israel's new conditions
relative to the Egyptian truce proposal. These conditions are tying the
truce to the release of captured Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit and
obtaining guarantees that arms smuggling into the Gaza Strip will halt.
Taha told the Weekly Israel in fact agreed to not tie the truce to the
Shalit case. Taha notes that Israel has moved past threats and attacked
Hamas in the past, but that this did not put an end to its resistance
activities "but rather made [Hamas] more intent on securing the
national interests of the Palestinian people."
Despite Israeli threats and Palestinian responses, numerous indicators
suggest that Tel Aviv is in fact leaning towards accepting the truce.
Hariel holds that despite the uproar over the Israeli officials'
statements, Tel Aviv does not consider the firing of missiles from the
Gaza Strip "the most serious threat to its security at the present
time". What took place recently in Lebanon, with Hizbullah taking
control in much of Beirut, switched on red lights in decision-making
circles and left "the heads of the Israeli intelligence agencies unable
to sleep".
In an analysis published last Tuesday, Hariel underlines that the
"victory" Hizbullah won over its foes in the Lebanese arena indicates
that Hizbullah leaders enjoy a great deal of self-confidence, meaning
that Hizbullah won't hesitate to attack Israel if Iran were attacked,
or even if Israel wages a military campaign against the Gaza Strip.
Hariel believes that Israel will agree to a truce for several months,
knowing that it will have a decisive military confrontation with Hamas
in the future.
Israeli journalist Avi Sekarov holds that Israel's hesitancy to wage a
military campaign against the Strip, and its preference for a truce,
stems from its failure to obtain international cover for the campaign.
Sekarov says that despite US President George W Bush's authorisation
during his recent visit for Israel to do whatever it sees appropriate
for "self-defence"
unconvinced of Israel's justifications for waging a campaign against
the Strip.
Meanwhile, Israeli voices have risen to demand that a campaign not be
waged, and that dialogue with Hamas be commenced instead.
The most important development in this regard has been the letter sent
by dozens of retired Israeli generals, intellectuals and writers to
Olmert and Minister of Defence Ehud Barak. In this letter, they
demanded that urgent discussions be held with Hamas for reaching a
ceasefire agreement and that any military campaigns planned for the
Strip not be implemented.
This letter gained significance by way of the high- ranking individuals
who signed it, including General Amnon Lipkin-Shahak, former chief of
staff, former head of Mossad Efraim Halevy, General Shlomo Zakai, who
was an occupation army commander in the Gaza Strip prior to
"disengagement"
and former Israeli minister of justice.
Signatories stressed that any major operation conducted in Gaza would
end the ceasefire and bring in international parties, and that thus it
would be better to reach an immediate agreement without paying the
price of those killed and wounded on both sides.
In contrast, Iyad Al-Barghouti expects that Israel will escalate its
military operations against the Strip. Al-Barghouti, professor of
political science at Birzeit University, told the Weekly that,
"according to Israeli strategic logic, military escalation serves
opportunities to reach a truce on Israeli conditions. Israeli leaders
believe that if Hamas and the other factions are struck, they will
yield and accept Israeli stipulations.
Al-Barghouti added that Israel won't wage a military campaign with the
goal of reoccupying Gaza and toppling Hamas's rule, for it is in
Israel's interest for there to be two competing Palestinian governments
in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Although the Palestinian wish for a
truce and lifting of the siege is great, Al-Barghouti warns that
lifting the siege in particular will make solving domestic conflict
more difficult since some parties have viewed solving the Palestinian
rift as a step towards having the siege lifted.
Ahmed Youssef, policy adviser to dismissed premier Ismail Haniyeh,
disagrees with Al-Barghouti and underlines that lifting the siege would
strengthen opportunities for settling domestic Palestinian conflict. In
statements to the Weekly, Youssef said that should Israel reject the
Egyptian truce proposal, Hamas and the rest of the Palestinian
resistant factions would demand that the Egyptian government reopen the
Rafah crossing immediately, and that Cairo and all Arab capitals work
to lift the siege of the Palestinian people.
"The Palestinian factions received a clear promise from Egypt to reopen
the Rafah crossing should Israel reject the Egyptian truce initiative,
since opening the crossing is a sovereign right of Egypt," he said.
It is clear that Israel is interested in a truce with Palestinian
factions in the Gaza Strip, mainly due to regional developments. Yet it
is trying to exploit the Palestinians' desire for a truce and the
lifting of the siege to gain concessions regarding the Shalit case and
the military strength of Hamas. Israel's success or failure depends on
how rigid is the position that Palestinian factions will take in Cairo
in the future.
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