INT 517 Date: Mon, 21 Apr 2008 15:51:59 -0500 (CDT) IF YOU DO NOT WANT TO RECEIVE FUTURE FREE SUMMARY COPIES OF "INTELLIGENCE", EMAIL US AT INTELLIGENCE-ADI@WANADOO.FR INTELLIGENCE ISSN 1245-2122 N. 517, 21 April 2008 Every Two to Three Weeks Next issue, 12 May 2008 Publishing since 1980 Editor Olivier Schmidt intelligence-adi@wanadoo.fr http://perso.wanadoo.fr/intelligence-adi A one year subscription (19 issues with article index) is 330 euros. Reduced rates for personal subscriptions (180 euros). Payment by credit card possible. TABLE OF CONTENTS, N. 517, 21 April 2008 FRONT PAGE ISRAEL - WAITING FOR HEZBOLLAH & PREPARING IRAN ATTACK p.1 TECHNOLOGY AND TECHNIQUES TIMELINE FROM 4 APRIL TO 17 APRIL p.2 BOEING'S NEW STEALTH A160T CHOPPER p.3 IED BECOMES EFP, GLOBAL WARMING & FOOD CRISIS p.4 PEOPLE RUSSIA - OLEG GORDIEVSKY p.5 AGENDA COMING EVENTS THROUGH 23 MAY 2008 p.6 INTELLIGENCE AROUND THE WORLD USA - BUSH WHITE HOUSE'S BRIEF HISTORY OF TORTURE p.7 - MORE BUSH/GOP FRAUD & CORRUPTION p.8 - FBI'S BAD TERRORIST TRACK RECORD GETS WORSE p.9 - "TOY" MISSILE DEFENSE FOR BUSH BUDDIES p.10 - "GETTING OUT" OF IRAQ... NOW p.11 - "PRETTY SERIOUSLY GOTTEN OFF ON THE WRONG TRACK" p.12 - MILITARY RAPE IN IRAQ NOT PROSECUTED p.13 - DUBIOUS FIRST MILITARY CONTRACTOR TRIAL & NEW DEAL p.14 - INR 2009 Intelligence Budget Published. p.15 GREAT BRITAIN - ARMY'S "SMALL MINORITIES" & WAR CRIMES p.16 - COURT STANDS UP TO "NEW LABOUR" & SAUDIS p.17 - WITHOUT CORRUPTION, BAE TRIMS WORK FORCE p.18 WESTERN EUROPE - EU, FRANCE, ITALY & SPAIN p.19 RUSSIA - BULLETS & INTER-AGENCY ALLEGATIONS FLY p.20 EASTERN EUROPE - NATO GOING EAST NO MORE p.21 LATIN AMERICA - BUSH LOOSES IN ECUADOR & COLOMBIA p.22 AFRICA - Kenya & Zimbabwe Vote Troubles. p.23 TURKEY - Ergenekon-Gladio Trial & Attack Against Kurds. p.24 ISRAEL/PALESTINE - SOMETHING MOVING & NORMAL BAD NEWS p.25 IRAQ - BASRA & SADR CITY BATTLES REVEAL TRUE SITUATION p.26 IRAN - "Secret" Nuclear Talks & Rebels on the Border. p.27 AFGHANISTAN - WILL THE WAR BE LOST BEFORE BUSH LEAVES? p.28 NEPAL - Mao's "Little Red Book" & Election Victory. p.29 TIBET - MONKS BEHAVING BADLY, SUITE p.30 THAILAND/RUSSIA/USA - VIKTOR BOUT & ARMS FOR EVERYBODY p.31 --------------------------------------------- FRONT PAGE Intelligence, N. 517, 21 April 2008, p. 1 ISRAEL WAITING FOR HEZBOLLAH & PREPARING IRAN ATTACK Senior officials from Israel's Mossad (foreign intelligence), Shin Bet (internal security) and Aman (military intelligence) have been meeting on a weekly basis since the assassination of Imad Mughniyeh, a senior member of militant Shia Islamist organization, Hezbollah, in Damascus two months ago to analyze the latest intelligence and assess the threat to Israel and/or Israeli interests abroad. (...cut...) --------------------------------------------- Intelligence, N. 517, 21 April 2008, p. 2 TIMELINE FROM 4 APRIL TO 17 APRIL The leading topics mentioned in our preceding issue continue to dominant the press with only a slight evolution in their respective importance. This also means that there are no new major important topics that have emerged. Of course, the most dominant topic is the Bush White House's Iraq war with experts saying the US is "no closer to leaving Iraq than it was a year ago" and retired Lieut. Gen. General William Odom testifying before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that "Rapid Withdrawal Is The Only Solution". Pushing in the same direction is the failure of battles in Basra and Sadr City: "More Than 1,000 in Iraq's Forces Quit Basra Fight"; "Muqtada al-Sadr and the American Dilemma in Iraq". This sad but dominant "foreign news" has been compounded by US "domestic news" concerning economic failure and now even concern about generalized US failure and decline: "81 Percent in US Poll Say Nation Is on the Wrong Track"; "Report Shows Stunning US [High School] Drop-Out Rate"; "If America Declines, Don't Expect Anyone to Talk About It", on Kevin Phillips' book, "Bad Money", Viking Press. Another present and increasingly important "domestic" topic is the accumulation of US military rape cases ("US Fails to Move on Iraq Sexual Assault Complaints"). Outside the US, the major topics continue to be China-Tibet-Olympic Games ("Dalai Lama says some diplomacy under way with China"), Bush's failure to push NATO east and Putin's push back ("Russia to give stronger backing to Georgia separatists"), and serious trouble in Bush's Latin America "backyard": "Ecuador - CIA Controls Part of Our Intelligence"; "Ecuador defence minister, armed forces chief sacked"; "Union Killings Peril Trade Pact With Colombia". And, of course, Bush's closest ally in the Middle East, Israel's right-wing government, is in more trouble: "Minister - Israel Would Destroy Iran if Attacked"; "Israel to bar UN rights official"; "Carter, Hamas meeting to go ahead"; "Jewish Liberals to Launch a Counterpoint to AIPAC"; "Hamas founder - What's required for Mideast peace". The other major topic, which has been important for some time, is Bush White House kidnapping, disappearance and torture policy: "Torture - The 'Blueprint That Led To Abu Ghraib'"; "Bush - 'I Was Aware' of Harsh Tactics, President says he knew his senior advisors approved tough interrogation methods"; "Press ignores story on Bush approval of torture techniques". However, the topic, "Bush's Warrantless Eavesdropping" (stable in our last issue at 5K, 5X from 5K, 8X), no longer appears as a significant individual topic in the news. (...cut...) --------------------------------------------- Intelligence, N. 517, 21 April 2008, p. 6 COMING EVENTS THROUGH 23 MAY 2008 24-25 April, Omaha, Nebraska, Peter Kiewit Institute and University of Nebraska, Third International Conference on Information Warfare and Security, mandy@academic-conferences.org 28-29 April, Boston, Massachusetts, Infonortics, Search Engine Meeting, www.infonortics.com 30 April, Bordeaux, Universite Montesquieu, beginning of the second session for the "Studies of Intelligence" diploma, www.cf2r.org 1 May, deadline for submission of proposals for the Transatlantic Studies Association Annual Conference, 7-10 July 2008, Dundee University, david.ryan@ucc.ie 1-2 May, Las Vegas, Nevada, Armed UAS Conference, ttcus.com 2-3 May 2008, Georgian College, Laurentian University, Ontario, Canada, the Human Condition Series: 2nd Annual International Multidisciplinary Conference on "Terror", TerrorProposal@ideologiesofwar.com 3-4 May, Vienna, Austria, University of Vienna, The Iranian Threat - The Islamic republic, Israel's struggle for existence and European reactions, www.stopthebomb.net 4-8 May, Fort Know, Kentucky, Armor Warfighting Conference. 9-10 May, Philadelphia, Pennysylvania, National Freedom of Information Coalition 2008 FOI Summit, for FOI practitioners and advocates to compare notes and exchange views, nfoic.org/2008_summit/ 12-15 May, Sorento, Italy, Delivering Maritime Security in Global Partnership, cjoscoemaritimeconference.org 13-14 May, Paris, EHESS, Military and Politics in the 2Oth Century - A Comparatist's Perspective, chirio@free.fr or 2000@yahoo.com 13-15 May, Fayettevile, North Carolina, Vehicle-borne, propelled and domestic IED threats, IED 2008, www.IED2008.com 15-16 May, Interlaken, Switzerland, Electronic Warfare Conference & Exhibition 2008. 15-16 May, Maastricht, Netherlands, Seminar on "Transparency and Data Protection - Cooperating or Conflicting Elements of Good Governance", covering the various aspects of "openness and transparency" and data protection in the EU, www.eipa.eu/en/activities/show/&tid=2748 16 May, proposals are due for the 3-4 October, Baltimore, Maryland, International Studies Association-Northeast, Annual Conference 2008, isa@u.arizona.edu or jbm3@lehigh.edu 19-22 May, Tampa, Florida, 2008 Special Operations Forces Industry Conference, meetingmattersplus.com/SOFIC08 20-23 May, New Haven, Connecticut, 18th annual Computers, Freedom, & Privacy Conference: Technology Policy '08, eddan.katz@yale.edu or http://cfp2008.org/ 21-22 May, Austin, Texas, Second Annual Global Border Security Conference, globalbordersecurity.com 23 May, deadline for applications for the Joint Services Command and Staff College's conference, Air Power and Strategy: Challenges for the 21st Century, on 12-13 June, in Shrivenham, England, jrussell.jscsc@defenceacademy.mod.uk --------------------------------------------- Intelligence, N. 517, 21 April 2008, p. 9 USA FBI'S BAD TERRORIST TRACK RECORD GETS WORSE The FBI's bad track record for terrorism convictions isn't improving at all (0417 WP, Second Mistrial in "Liberty City 7" Case, Julienne Gage): "A federal judge in Miami declared a second mistrial Wednesday in the case of six men accused of plotting to blow up Chicago's Sears Tower, and attack other targets, when a second jury failed to reach a verdict on the charges. The decision is a setback for the Bush administration, which had touted the case as an example of the government's ability to prevent terrorist attacks but has failed to win convictions in two attempts." In this case, the FBI was at the very limits of entrapment and the "terrorists" they tried to entrap were a bunch of poorly-educated "local losers" that the jury had trouble taking seriously as threats to national security (see "USA - FBI Can't 'Get Its Game Together' on Terrorism"; INT, n. 514 16). (...cut...) --------------------------------------------- Intelligence, N. 517, 21 April 2008, p. 10 USA "TOY" MISSILE DEFENSE FOR BUSH BUDDIES While the Bush White House and its friendly right-wing politicians in Poland and the Czech Republic play out the local sequel to "Star Wars", pretending that Russia isn't the target, real missile defense specialists were criticizing the entire project back in Washington (0416 AP, Doubts Voiced About US Anti-Missile Plan): "A group of prominent scientists who have been critical of missile defense plans told lawmakers Wednesday that a system being built by the United States cannot protect the country. They also questioned whether the Defense Department has misled the public and European allies about the system's capabilities. 'The program offers no prospect of defending the United States from a real-world missile attack and undermines efforts to eliminate the real nuclear threats to the United States,' Lisbeth Gronlund, a senior scientist at the Union of Concerned Scientists, told lawmakers at a House oversight hearing on the missile defense program, according to prepared testimony. Gronlund's group has long expressed skepticism about missile defense. The hearing was called by the panel's chairman, Rep. John Tierney, D-Mass., who has sought to step up oversight of the missile defense program since the Democrats took control of the House last year. Missile defense traditionally has drawn more support from Republicans." (...cut...) --------------------------------------------- Intelligence, N. 517, 21 April 2008, p. 16 GREAT BRITAIN ARMY'S "SMALL MINORITIES" & WAR CRIMES The British Ministry of Defence (MoD) has finally admitted responsibility for the death of Baha Mousa, an Iraqi hotel receptionist who was tortured and beaten to death by soldiers from 1st Battalion, the Queen's Lancashire Regiment, in September 2003. (...cut...) --------------------------------------------- Intelligence, N. 517, 21 April 2008, p. 17 GREAT BRITAIN COURT STANDS UP TO "NEW LABOUR" & SAUDIS The December 2006 decision by the Serious Fraud Office (SFO) to drop its investigations into bribery and corruption allegations in arms deals between BAE Systems and Saudi Arabia was unlawful and violated both British and international law, according to a 10 April London High Court ruling. (...cut...) ---------------------------------------------