[NYTr] Latest Gallup, Pew Polls: It Ain't Necessarily So Date: Sat, 26 May 2007 18:26:05 -0400 Via NY Transfer News Collective * All the News that Doesn't Fit sent by Tim Murphy (activ-l) The Bureau of Counterpropaganda - May 25, 2007 http://www.bureauofcounterpropaganda.blogspot.com It ain't necessarily so by Ernie Halfdram Based on the average of three surveys of 1000 American adults each over the past three Mays, Gallup's Frank Newport reports that less than one fifth of Americans think the Bible 'is an ancient book of "fables, legends, history, and moral precepts recorded by man."' Nearly a third believe it is literally the word of god and a plurality of nearly half think it is somehow divinely inspired. (1) The good news is that the average of 31% who believe in the most literal interpretation over nine surveys since 1991 is somewhat lower than the average of 38% over the seven surveys between 1976 and 1984, twice reaching 40%. There is a clear negative correlation between education and superstition. Among those who never started university, 83% believe the Bible has some kind of supernatural origin, while only 13% understand its human origins. Among those who started but didn't complete university, 81% think it's divinely inspired, and 19% don't. Ominously, 73% of college graduates and 68% of those with postgraduate education adopt the superstitious explanation, while only 25% and 30% of these populations respectively accept human authorship. Perhaps the scariest revelation of all is that 36% of those with 'no religious identification' still believe in some kind of non human origin and 10% that the Bible is literally the word of god. In related polling from the Pew Research Center, in the latest values survey, conducted Dec. 12, 2006-Jan. 9, 2007, the proportion saying 'Prayer is an important part of my daily life' has declined since 1999 by a full ten percentage points, from 55% to 45%, still a frightening level, and still above the low in 1987 of 41%. The proportion claiming, 'I never doubt the existence of god' has also declined considerably since 1999, from 69% to 61%, and even more dramatically since 1994, when it peaked at 72%! (2) Furthermore, on Pew's generational basis, younger generations are becoming more 'secular', which Pew defines as calling oneself, atheist, agnostic, or no religion. Only 5% of 'Pre-boomers', born before 1946, are secular, as defined. Of the 'Boomer generation, born 1946-1964, it's 11%. 'Generation X' (1965-76) boasts a secularity rate of 14%, while of the post 1976 'Generation Y', 19% claim to reject religion. Still, that means over four fifths of the most secular generation are still steeped in superstition. A more encouraging trend, presumably unrelated to the hocus pocus factor, is that the proportion agreeing that 'the best way to endure peace is through military strength' has declined to it's lowest point since 1987, at 49% after a steep decline from the 2002 peak of 62%, while those disagreeing have reached a 20 year high of 47%, up from the 2002 nadir of 34%. There also appears to be some erosion of 'conservative' social attitudes. Sixty-nine percent now say the 'Government should care for those who can't care for themselves', up from a low of 57% in 1994, but still short of the 1987 peak of 71%. A 20 year high, 54%, say the government should help the needy even if means greater debt', the highest since 1987 after bottoming out at 47% in 1994. The proportion who think 'school boards should have the right to fire homosexual teachers' has plummeted by nearly half, 23 percentage points, from a high of 51% in 1987. While the trajectories on these four indicators may be cause for optimism, it's important to realise that even in this day and age, over 30% don't want any government provision 'for those who can't care for themselves', presumably the disabled. Nearly half begrudge 'the needy', and a plurality still think that military power is the key to peace. *** (1) Gallup - May 25, 2007 (See this URL for graphics) http://www.galluppoll.com/content/?ci=27682 One-Third of Americans Believe the Bible is Literally True High inverse correlation between education and belief in a literal Bible by Frank Newport GALLUP NEWS SERVICE PRINCETON, NJ -- About one-third of the American adult population believes the Bible is the actual word of God and is to be taken literally word for word. This percentage is slightly lower than several decades ago. The majority of those Americans who don't believe that the Bible is literally true believe that it is the inspired word of God but that not everything it in should be taken literally. About one in five Americans believe the Bible is an ancient book of "fables, legends, history, and moral precepts recorded by man." Belief in a literal Bible is strongly correlated with indicators of religion, including church attendance and identification with a Protestant or other non-Catholic Christian faith. There is also a strong relationship between education and belief in a literal Bible, with such belief becoming much less prevalent among those who have college educations. Background One's view of the authority of the Bible has been and remains a key focal point for many religions today. Some denominations hold the belief in a literal Bible as a hallmark of their faith. The statement of "Faith and Mission" of the Southern Baptist Convention, for example, states that: "The Holy Bible was written by men divinely inspired and is God's revelation of Himself to man. It is a perfect treasure of divine instruction. It has God for its author, salvation for its end, and truth, without any mixture of error, for its matter. Therefore, all Scripture is totally true and trustworthy." Although even those who believe in a literal Bible can still be at odds in their attempt to interpret exactly what the Bible says about key areas of Scripture and moral issues, a literal belief structure has been the basis for justifications for a variety of important positions in American life. These have included opposition to evolution and the teaching thereof in public schools (going back to the days of the Scopes Monkey Trial), opposition to same-sex relationships, the proper relationship between husbands and wives with a marriage, observance of a day of rest, the belief that positions as preachers or priests should be maintained for men only, and even such seemingly unrelated topics as immigration. Americans' Opinions Only about one-third of Americans today believe the Bible is absolutely accurate and that it should be taken literally word for word. The rest either feel that the Bible is the inspired word of God, but not literally so, or that it is a book of ancient fables, legends, and history as recorded by man. Americans' views on the Bible have not changed materially over the past 16 years. Gallup has asked this question about personal views of the Bible nine times since 1991. The percentage saying the Bible is the actual, literal word of God has remained in a relatively narrow range between 27% and 35% across this time period, with the average being 31%. Prior to that point, however, the data suggest that Americans' belief in a literal Bible was slightly higher. Gallup asked the question seven times between 1976 and 1984, during which time an average of 38% said that the Bible is the actual word of God. At two points during this time period, 40% of Americans agreed with the literal interpretation view of the Bible. Belief in a Literal Bible Among Sub-Groups of the Population To provide a larger and more stable sample for purposes of analyzing the distribution of beliefs regarding the Bible in the American population, we aggregated data from the last three surveys in which this Bible question was asked -- in May of 2005, 2006, and 2007 -- for a sample size of 3,010 interviews. The analysis of these data shows one demographic variable that is highly related to views of the Bible -- education. The higher the level of education, the less likely the individual is to believe that the Bible is the actual, literal word of God. Even though those with postgraduate educations are much less likely to believe in a literal Bible, the majority of that group do believe that the Bible is the inspired word of God, rather than solely a human creation. Those who identify as Protestants or other non-Catholic Christians are significantly more likely to believe that the Bible is the literal word of God than are Catholics. Not surprisingly, those Americans who say they have no religious affiliation are much more likely than the other groups to say that the Bible is a creation of humans. It is interesting to note, however, that 10% of those with no religious identification still believe the Bible is literally the word of God, and another 26% say it is inspired. There is a predictable and highly significant relationship between self-reported church attendance and belief in a literal Bible. Fifty-four percent of those who attend church weekly believe the Bible is the actual word of God. That figure drops in a linear fashion as church attendance falls, to a low point of 8% who believe in a literal Bible among those who report never attending church. Church attendance is highest in the South, so it comes as no surprise to find that Southerners are most likely to believe in a literal Bible. Those in the East are least likely to believe in a literal Bible. There is not a highly significant relationship between age and belief in a literal Bible. Survey Methods Results are based on a series of surveys based on telephone interviews with approximately 1,000 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted by Gallup. For results based on any one total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximim margin of sampling error for any given survey is ±3 percentage points. For the aggregated group of interviews conducted between May 2005 and May 2007 used in portions of the above analysis, the maximim margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls. *** (2) Pew Research - March 22, 2007 (see URL below for graphics) http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=312 Trends in Political Values and Core Attitudes: 1987-2007 Political Landscape More Favorable To Democrats Released: March 22, 2007 Summary of Findings Increased public support for the social safety net, signs of growing public concern about income inequality, and a diminished appetite for assertive national security policies have improved the political landscape for the Democrats as the 2008 presidential campaign gets underway. At the same time, many of the key trends that nurtured the Republican resurgence in the mid-1990s have moderated, according to Pew's longitudinal measures of the public's basic political, social and economic values. The proportion of Americans who support traditional social values has edged downward since 1994, while the proportion of Americans expressing strong personal religious commitment also has declined modestly. Even more striking than the changes in some core political and social values is the dramatic shift in party identification that has occurred during the past five years. In 2002, the country was equally divided along partisan lines: 43% identified with the Republican Party or leaned to the GOP, while an identical proportion said they were Democrats. Today, half of the public (50%) either identifies as a Democrat or says they lean to the Democratic Party, compared with 35% who align with the GOP. Yet the Democrats' growing advantage in party identification is tempered by the fact that the Democratic Party's overall standing with the public is no better than it was when President Bush was first inaugurated in 2001. Instead, it is the Republican Party that has rapidly lost public support, particularly among political independents. Faced with an unpopular president who is waging an increasingly unpopular war, the proportion of Americans who hold a favorable view of the Republican Party stands at 41%, down 15 points since January 2001. But during that same period, the proportion expressing a positive view of Democrats has declined by six points, to 54%. The study of the public's political values and attitudes by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press – the most recent in a series of such reports dating back to 1987 – finds a pattern of rrising support since the mid-1990s for government action to help disadvantaged Americans. More Americans believe that the government has a responsibility to take care of people who cannot take care of themselves, and that it should help more needy people even if it means going deeper into debt. These attitudes have undergone a major change since 1994, when the Republicans won control of Congress. In particular, 54% say the government should help more needy people, even if it adds to the nation's debt, up from just 41% in 1994. All party groups are now more supportive of government aid to the poor, though Republicans remain much less supportive than Democrats or independents if it means adding to the deficit. Despite these favorable shifts in support for more government help for the poor, 69% agree that "poor people have become too dependent on government assistance programs." Still, the number in agreement has been declining over the past decade. More broadly, the poll finds that money worries are rising. More than four-in-ten (44%) say they "don't have enough money to make ends meet," up from 35% in 2002. While a majority continues to say they are "pretty well satisfied" with their personal financial situation, that number is lower than it has been in more than a decade. In addition, an increasing number of Americans subscribe to the sentiment "today it's really true that the rich just get richer while the poor get poorer." Currently, 73% concur with that sentiment, up from 65% five years ago. Growing concerns about income inequality are most apparent among affluent Americans; large percentages of lower-income people have long held this opinion. The new survey also shows that the deep partisan fissure in values and core attitudes revealed in Pew's previous survey in 2003 has narrowed slightly. But Republicans and Democrats remain far apart in their fundamental attitudes toward government, national security, social values, and even in evaluations of personal finances. Three-in-four (74%) Republicans with annual incomes of less than $50,000 say they are "pretty well satisfied" with their financial conditions compared with 40% of Democrats and 39% of independents with similar incomes. Even as Americans express greater commitment to solving domestic problems, they voice more hesitancy about global engagement. They also are less disposed than five years ago to favor a strong military as the best way to ensure peace. In 2002, less than a year after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, more than six-in-ten agreed with the statement, "The best way to ensure peace is through military strength." Today, about half express similar confidence in military power. The latest values survey, conducted Dec. 12, 2006-Jan. 9, 2007, finds a reversal of increased religiosity observed in the mid-1990s. While most Americans remain religious in both belief and practice, the percentage expressing strong religious beliefs has edged down since the 1990s. And the survey finds an increase in the relatively small percentage of the public that can be categorized as secular. In Pew surveys since the beginning of 2006, 12% identified themselves as unaffiliated with a religious tradition. That compares with 8% in the Pew values survey in 1987. This change appears to be generational in nature, with each new generation displaying lower levels of religious commitment than the preceding one. In addition, political differences in levels of religious commitment are larger now than in years past. Republicans are at least as religious as they were 10 or 20 years ago, based on the numbers expressing belief in God, citing prayer as important, and other measures. By contrast, Democrats express lower levels of commitment than in the late 1980s and 1990s. At the same time, the survey records further declines in traditional social attitudes. The poll finds greater public acceptance of homosexuality and less desire for women to play traditional roles in society. Both represent a continuation of trends that have been apparent over the past 20 years, and have occurred mostly among older people. The younger generations have changed the least, as they have consistently expressed more accepting points of view over the past 20 years. Divides on some once-contentious issues also appear to be closing. In 1995, 58% said they favored affirmative action programs designed to help blacks, women, and other minorities get better jobs. That percentage has risen steadily since, and stands at 70% in the current poll. Gains in support for affirmative action have occurred to almost the same extent among Republicans (+8), Democrats (+10), and Independents (+14). Changes nationally in the beliefs of Americans on social, political and religious values tell a revealing but incomplete story. The proportion of voters who hold certain politically relevant core beliefs varies widely from state to state, further complicating an already complicated 2008 election campaign. For example, politically conservative, white evangelical Christians make up 10% of all Republicans and Republican leaners in New Hampshire – currently the first state to hold its presidential primaries in 2008 – but 39% of all GOP partisans in South Carolina where primary voters go to the polls several days later. On the Democratic side, the proportion of Democrats who say they are politically liberal ranges from 38% in California to 25% in South Carolina. (See pages 10-11 for a fuller ideological profiling of key primary states) Among other key findings from the wide-ranging survey: * The public expresses highly favorable views of many leading corporations. Johnson & Johnson and Google have the most positive images of 23 corporations tested. At the bottom of the list: Halliburton, which is viewed favorably by fewer than half of those familiar enough with the company to give it a rating. * Views of many corporations vary significantly among Democrats along class lines. Two-thirds of working-class Democrats have a favorable view of Wal-Mart compared with 45% of professional-class Democrats. * Americans are worried more that businesses rather than government are snooping into their lives. About three-in-four (74%) say they are concerned that business corporations are collecting too much personal information while 58% express the same concern about the government. * The public is losing confidence in itself. A dwindling majority (57%) say they have a good deal of confidence in the wisdom of the American people when it comes to making political decisions. Similarly, the proportion who agrees that Americans "can always find a way to solve our problems" has dropped 16 points in the past five years. * Americans feel increasingly estranged from their government. Barely a third (34%) agree with the statement, "most elected officials care what people like me think," nearly matching the 20-year low of 33% recorded in 1994 and a 10-point drop since 2002. * Young people continue to hold a more favorable view of government than do other Americans. At the same time, young adults express the least interest in voting and other forms of political participation. * Interpersonal racial attitudes continue to moderate. More than eight-in-ten (83%) agree that "it's all right for blacks and whites to date," up six percentage points since 2003 and 13 points from a Pew survey conducted 10 years ago. * Republicans are increasingly divided over the cultural impact of immigrants. Nearly seven-in-ten (68%) conservative Republicans say immigrants threaten American customs, compared with 43% of GOP moderates and liberals. Democrats have long been divided along ideological lines, but the GOP previously had not been. Roadmap to the Report Section 1, which begins on p. 7, describes the striking shift in party identification over the past five years, the public's views of both parties, and the ideological profile of the early presidential primary states. Section 2, which details the public's views of the government safety net, success and empowerment, and personal finances, begins on p. 12. Section 3 (p. 19) covers public attitudes toward foreign policy and national security. Section 4 (p. 30) covers opinions about religion and social issues. Section 5 (p. 39) describes changing attitudes toward race and race relations. Section 6 (p. 45) discusses the public's complex views about government and political participation. Opinions about business, and ratings for individual corporations, are covered in Section 7, which begins on p. 52. Section 8 covers public views about civil liberties, the environment, and science. View the complete report in pdf format here: http://people-press.org/reports/pdf/312.pdf * ================================================================ .NY Transfer News Collective * A Service of Blythe Systems . Since 1985 - Information for the Rest of Us . .339 Lafayette St., New York, NY 10012 http://www.blythe.org .List Archives: https://olm.blythe-systems.com/pipermail/nytr/ .Subscribe: https://olm.blythe-systems.com/mailman/listinfo/nytr ================================================================