Public power is safe Public power is safe | November 7, 2001 | SFBG News San Francisco pollster calls the election though absentee ballot counts not final. By Savannah Blackwell SAN FRANCISCO voters successfully passed Proposition F, a public power measure on the Nov. 6 ballot, says pollster David Binder. At his annual post-election wrap-up at the San Francisco Urban Policy and Research (SPUR) headquarters Nov. 7, Binder said he expected that the 17,000 or so ballots that remain to be counted will not reverse Tuesday's tentative results on Prop. F -- or on measure I, the Municipal Utility District. Binder is considered the city's most respected poll-taker. Of the 17,000, 14,000 are believed to be absentees and 3,000 are provisional ballots. A voter casts a "provisional ballot" when election workers find there is a technical problem with the voter's registration. Prop. F supporters have not declared victory choosing to wait for the final count. But Binder explained that for F -- Board President Tom Ammiano's water and power agency -- to win, the absentees (which are cast earlier generally by more conservative voters) needed to break down 43 percent "yes" and 57 percent "no." That's exactly what the way absentee ballots already counted by DOE officials have gone. On election night, 53 percent of the roughly 113,000 ballots cast on F were "yes" votes, and 47 percent were "no." "This means Proposition F is safe, because it is highly unlikely that all of the remaining ballots will be as conservative as the absentee to turn the tide," Binder said. The results on measure I will likely not change, either he said. Binder attributed Measure I's failure to candidates' confusion on some of the technical issues involved in the proposal, such as the inclusion of Brisbane in the district. Overall, Binder said that Nov. 6's results caught him by surprise. He had expected that last November's huge success for progressive voters was an aberration -- due to voters' disgust with corruption reports in the Mayor Willie Brown administration. He added Tuesday night's results show a strong progressive coalition in the city has become better organized and is now swaying results in low-turnout elections. In previous years, a low turnout usually meant that more conservatives voted than liberals did. Not so anymore, Binder said. "We are seeing the awakening of the progressive community voting in concert with progressive causes [such as public power]," Binder told the crowd. "It was clear that voters want input on matters [affecting them] and want reform." Binder said that early polling he had done for the pro-F and -I campaigns showed that some 60 percent of participants supported public power. Reports of an economy going bust has not dampened San Franciscans' enthusiasm much. "We're very, very energy conscious in the city," Binder said. "Even if there were no energy crisis, I think you would still find that the majority of voters would go for public power. The negative information about PG that's come out, the bonuses to executives, huge profits -- all that contributed." As for the city attorney race, Binder said he did not expect the uncounted ballots to reverse Tuesday night's outcome. Former Deputy Mayor Jim Lazarus took about 40 percent to maritime lawyer Dennis Herrera's 28 percent. Binder attributed the third and fourth place finishes of candidates Steve Williams and Neil Eisenberg respectively to a split between the city's two most influential progressive organizations -- the Harvey Milk Lesbian Gay Bisexual and Transgender Democratic Club and the San Francisco Bay Guardian. Together, the two sway about 40 percent of the vote. Divided, that support is obviously dilluted. "On the rare occasion when we find the two split, we found that the progressive voter is divided into two," he said. E-mail Savannah Blackwell at savannah_blackwell@sfbg.com [savannah_blackwell@sfbg.com] . [http://www.sfbg.com/searchit.html]